Republic of Congo’s oil windfall offers window to break debt cycle – World Bank

The Republic of Congo’s economy is projected to grow 4.4% in 2026 as higher oil production and prices boost government revenues, but recurring payment arrears and public debt of about 97% of GDP threaten to undermine the recovery, the World Bank warned on November 10.

In its 13th Republic of Congo Economic Update, titled Breaking the Debt Cycle: From Arrears to Fiscal Resilience, the bank said GDP growth would accelerate from 3.1% in 2025. The IMF put 2025 growth at 2.4% in its March post-financing assessment, while Fitch Ratings estimated 2.7%. The fiscal surplus is forecast to rise from 0.6% to 3.7% of GDP, while inflation is forecast to rise to 3.8%.

The recovery is being driven primarily by higher oil prices. Crude output is around 279,000 barrels per day (bpd), against a government target of 500,000 bpd. Reducing arrears would restore private sector confidence, ease business liquidity constraints and support investment and job creation, the bank said.

The government issued three Eurobonds totalling $1.63bn between November 2025 and February 2026 to refinance short-term debt, according to the bank’s country overview. Congo sold a further $850mn 2036 bond with a 9.5% coupon on May 20, bringing its international bond issuance since November 2025 to nearly $2.5bn, according to Moody’s, which revised its outlook on Congo’s Caa2 rating to positive that month.

Charlotte Ndaw Sako, the World Bank Group’s resident representative in Congo, said arrears were a major source of budget vulnerability and that growth depended more on reforms to public finance management and structural transformation than on oil prices, Vox Congo reported on November 11.

Economy Minister Ludovic Ngatsé acknowledged that the improvement remained largely dependent on external factors, and said heavy reliance on oil revenue exposed public finances to volatile prices and slowed the development of more diversified revenue sources.

“Congo has a unique opportunity to turn today’s oil revenues into lasting fiscal resilience,” said Rick Tsouck Ibounde, the World Bank’s lead economist and report co-author. The bank called for stronger debt and cash-flow management, tighter fiscal discipline and reforms to prevent arrears from returning.

“The current oil windfall provides a critical window for action,” said Cheick F. Kanté, the World Bank’s division director for the Republic of Congo.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) classified Congo’s external and overall public debt as in distress in its 2026 debt sustainability assessment, while judging it sustainable conditional on significant and sustained fiscal adjustment.

Its October mission reported progress in negotiations over a new Extended Credit Facility arrangement, which Congo requested in April alongside other members of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC), but discussions continued without a staff-level agreement.

Estimates of the debt burden vary. Moody’s put public debt at 98% of GDP in 2025, while Fitch, which upgraded Congo’s local-currency rating to CCC+ in August, estimated 92.1% at the end of 2025 and forecast that it would fall to 80.9% in 2026, and that arrears would fall to 9.4% of GDP from an estimated 13.3%.

The World Bank expects economic growth to moderate to an average of 3.7% in 2027–2028 as oil prices normalise, with the fiscal surplus narrowing to 2.3% of GDP and inflation easing. It warned that, without progress on reforms, normalising oil prices could expose underlying vulnerabilities.

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