Baltic Sea could host 13 GW of new power links by 2040

The Baltic Sea could emerge as one of Europe’s most important clean energy corridors, with new research pointing to major untapped potential in cross-border power links and offshore wind generation by 2040, Latvia’s transmission system operator Augstsprieguma Tikls (AST) said on its website.

A joint study by electricity transmission system operators from eight Baltic Sea countries suggests that up to 13 gigawatts of new cross-border interconnectors could be developed in the region over the next 15 years. Combined with as much as 50 gigawatts of additional offshore wind capacity, the infrastructure could significantly reshape Europe’s energy landscape.

According to AST, the analysis shows that new connections would not only strengthen energy security but also operate at high capacity throughout the year. Modelling indicates that such links would help lower system costs, reduce electricity price spikes and cut carbon dioxide emissions.

The proposed infrastructure includes both traditional point-to-point interconnectors between countries and more complex offshore hubs. One such example is the Danish island of Bornholm, which could evolve into a hybrid offshore node connecting several national grids and wind farms.

AST says the study represents an important step towards coordinated sea basin planning at European level and offers a clear analytical foundation for long-term decisions in Latvia’s energy system. From a Latvian perspective, the findings suggest that priority should be given to strengthening transmission capacity with Estonia. In the longer term, connections with Germany are seen as strategically important, while a link with Sweden could become relevant if renewable energy capacity expands significantly.

A potential connection with Finland is also mentioned, although this would depend on broader regional developments, including the planned fourth Latvia–Estonia interconnector and the Estlink 3 project.

Work is already under way on some of these ideas. AST and Estonia’s transmission operator Elering are carrying out a joint technical and economic assessment of a fourth interconnector between the two countries, with an environmental impact study expected to begin this year. Separate financial studies are also being conducted on a possible electricity link between Latvia and Germany, involving Lithuanian operator Litgrid and Germany’s 50Hertz.

In addition, a feasibility study on a subsea interconnector between Latvia’s Kurzeme coast and Sweden’s island of Gotland has found the project would be beneficial for both sides.

Beyond electricity, the study highlights the growing importance of sector coupling. Offshore wind is expected not only to supply power directly to consumers, but also to support the development of hydrogen systems. In this scenario, the Baltic Sea region could become a net exporter of electricity to the rest of Europe, underlining its strategic role in the continent’s future energy security.

The study was prepared by the transmission operators of Germany, Latvia, Estonia, Denmark, Finland, Lithuania, Poland and Sweden.