Eurasia will be key driver to global gas production growth over coming decades: GECF

Eurasia will solidify its position as the second top-producing gas region, achieving a 1.3% annual growth rate between now and 2050, according to the GECF.

WHAT: Eurasian gas output will rise by 362 bcm to 1.208 tcm by mid-decade, the GECF estimates, driven mainly by growth in Russia.

WHY: Despite current Western sanctions, the GECF is bullish on Russia’s ability to develop new projects to support pipeline and LNG exports in the future.

WHAT NEXT: Eurasia’s share of global gas production will increase to 23% by 2050, from 21% in 2023.

The Eurasian region will be one of the key drivers of natural gas production growth over the coming decades, according to the latest outlook report by the Global Exporting Countries’ Forum (GECF). 

Eurasia, together with Africa and the Middle East, will see their output expand by a combined 1.072 trillion cubic metres between 2023 and 2050, according to the GECF, whose 19 member countries include the world’s biggest natural gas exporters such as Russia and Qatar.

Even though Russia – by far the top producer in Eurasia – has halted most of its pipeline gas supply to Europe over the past three years, the GECF expects the region to remain a key global supplier, thanks to ongoing investments in new pipelines – namely the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline to China – as well as new LNG terminals, despite Western sanctions having brought Russia’s LNG expansion largely to the halt.

Eurasian gas production dropped by 4.6% in 2023 to 846bn cubic metres, primarily because of redacted output in Russia and Uzbekistan. But in 2024, it rebounded by almost 50 bcm to 891 bcm, with Russia alone accounting for 48 bcm of that growth.

“Eurasia is forecast to solidify its position as the second-largest natural gas-producing region globally by 2050,” the GECF said, estimating that output would reach 1.208 tcm by mid-decade, up 362 bcm from the level in 2023 and equating to a 1.3% annual growth rate. Russia’s output will rise to 929 bcm by 2050, according to the outlook.

“This growth is expected to be supported by new field developments, the expansion of LNG capacity, and infrastructure projects aimed at diversifying export routes and markets,” the GECF said. “Notably, Russia’s strategic focus on Eastern Siberia and the Far East regions, coupled with its expanding pipeline network to Asia, is anticipated to play a critical role in achieving these production targets.

Country break-down

Despite recent challenges, Russian output should reach 929 bcm by 2050, up 291 from the level of 2023.

Turkmenistan will also stand out, with production doubling to 150 bcm by 2050, underpinned by the country’s extensive gas reserves, the development of new fields and increased pipeline export capacity, particularly to China and South Asia.

“If realised, the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline will further increase the country’s production and export potential,” the GECF said.

First planned decades, TAPI would carry up to 33 bcm to South Asia. But the project has struggled to make much material progress, owing to security concerns in Afghanistan, general financing difficulties and competing LNG imports in India and Pakistan. 

Azerbaijan will also see its production reach 44 bcm by 2050, on the back of further development of the giant Shah Deniz field and other offshore assets in the Caspian Sea. Azerbaijan has been expanding its gas flow to Europe, taking advantage of the EU’s push to eliminate remaining Russian gas imports. This supply is delivered via the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) network of pipelines.

Onshore gas production, which accounted for 92% of the region’s total in 2023, will continue to dominate over the look period, reaching 1.103 tcm by 2050. Azerbaijan’s production is almost entirely offshore, and this will remain the case. However, offshore developments in Russia’s Kara Sea and Sakhalin regions will drive the region’s offshore production to 105 bcm by 2050, from 65 bcm in 2023.

Again, offshore development in Russia has been stymied in recent years by Western sanctions, as well as challenging geological and operations conditions, particularly in the Arctic. 

Gas production growth in Eurasia will be driven by conventional projects, in contrast to other regions such as North America and the Middle East. These projects will deliver an extra 199 bcm of gas by 2030, rising to 590 bcm by 2050.

Russia will lead this growth with several strategic projects, including the Kovyktinskoye gas field in Eastern Siberia, the Utrenneye field on the Arctic Gydan Peninsula, which supplies the Arctic LNG-2 terminal, and the Kharasaveyskoye field and the Neocomian Jurassic layer of the Bovanenkovskoye field on the Yamal Peninsula, the GECF said. Turkmenistan’s growth will meanwhile be underpinned by the phased development of the Galkynysh field. 

All told, Eurasia’s share of global gas production will increase to 23% by 2050, from 21% in 2023.

Demand

On the  demand side, gas is expected to maintain its leading role in the Eurasian energy mix, having accounted for 51% of total energy consumption in 2023. Demand should grow at a modest annual average rate of 0.9% over the period, from 650 bcm in 2023 to 820 bcm by 2050.

“This growth reflects a combination of steady industrial expansion, increased household gas connections and the development of new applications for natural gas,” the GECF said. “However, the pace of demand growth is expected to be moderated by energy-saving measures, particularly in the power and heat generation sectors, where efficiency improvements will reduce fuel intensity.”

Despite such constraints, the GECF points to the expansion of natural gas vehicle (NGV) markets as a key driver of growth, along with increasing use of gas in gas-to-chemicals, petrochemicals and non-metallic minerals production. The transport sector should add 40 bcm of demand by 2050, offsetting a 37-bcm decline in consumption in the heat sector. Gas demand in power should rise by 47 bcm.

“Moreover, the production of blue hydrogen, driven by the region’s abundant gas resources, is emerging as a promising avenue for boosting gas consumption, particularly as global efforts to decarbonise hard-to-abate sectors accelerate,” the GECF said.

Natural gas demand for blue hydrogen should grow by 47 bcm between 2023 and 2050, largely as a result of projects developing in Russia, which aims to leverage its substantial carbon storage potential at depleted oil and gas fields to support blue hydrogen production. 

Russia alone will account for more than 57% of the incremental demand growth in the Eurasian region by 2050. The country will increase its demand by 97 bcm or 20% by 2050, thanks to ongoing gasification programmes, increased use in road transport, expansion of gas-to-chemicals and growing production of blue production. 

Meanwhile, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan will together contribute 27%. “These countries are expected to leverage their extensive gas reserves and infrastructure to support domestic economic development while potentially expanding exports to nearby markets,” the GECF said.