Europe’s gas crisis deepens as Putin turns the tables on Europe, threatens to cut off supplies early

Russian President Vladimir Putin sought to capitalise on the chaos on the energy markets by threatening to cut off Russian gas supplies to Europe, which is already facing a gas crisis that will amplified by the escalating war in Iran.

Speaking on state television on March 5, Putin said he would instruct the government to assess shifting supplies away from the bloc in response to the EU’s planned ban on imports of Russian pipeline gas and LNG.

“Other markets are opening now,” Putin said in an interview with state TV. “Maybe it’s better for us to end supplies to the European market right now? To go to those markets that are opening now and get a foothold there.”

The thinly-veiled threat comes days after Qatar halted LNG production following an Iranian drone strike and Tehran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, affecting one-fifth of global LNG supply. Sources told Reuters on March 5 that it might take Qatar up to a month to restore full production. 

Putin told Kremlin journalist Pavel Zarubin that Europe’s jump in gas prices is the result of the EU’s own policy mistakes, not Russian action.

Ukrainian officials are describing Putin’s remarks as “Energy Blackmail 2.0.” They say Russia is trying to exploit the current global energy shock – linked to the war in the Middle East – to scare Europe into easing its latest sanctions, the Kyiv Post reported.

Battle of the bans

Europe has threatened to ban imports of Russian gas completely by January 1, 2027 with the goal of starving the Kremlin of revenues to fund the war in Ukraine. Putin is doubling down and turning the EU threat on its head at a time when Europe has suddenly become more dependent on Russian LNG imports than ever.

Ukraine says it already adjusted to a “zero-transit” reality after the transit arrangement involving Russia’s Gazprom and Ukraine’s Naftogaz ended on January 1, 2025. By threaten to deepen Europe’s escalating gas crisis, analysts believe that the Kremlin is hoping to increase pressure on the White House to push for a faster end of the Ukraine conflict on Putin’s terms.

As bne IntelliNews reported, following the big freeze this winter, Europe is already in a gas crisis. It has drawn down far more gas than usual and is facing a shortage as the heating season is about to end. The EU will not run out of gas, but with German storage tanks, the largest in Europe, are now only 20% full and the EU average is down to 30%, IntelliNews Lambda reported. That means even before the Iranian war broke out Germany will struggle to refill its tanks to the mandatory 90% full by November 1 and is expected to reach only 75% of capacity by the deadline, according to IntelliNews Lambda calculations.

In the scramble to refill tanks, prices were already rising before hostilities in the Middle East broke out but now, they are expected to accelerate. The cost of gas on the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) Virtual Trading Point in the Netherlands has already soared from around €35MWh pre-Operation Epic Fury to €50MWh in just four days, but are still way off the 2022 gas crisis peak of €300MWh.

Europe remains addicted to Russian gas and while it has almost managed to cut itself off from Russian oil imports – Hungary and Slovakia are notable exceptions thanks to an exemption – Russian gas continues to make up some 13% of the EU gas mix in 2025, worth more than €15bn ($16.3bn), and imports have increased last year thanks to the extremely cold weather.

Europe imported a record 142bn cubic metres of LNG in 2025, marking a 28% increase from the previous year. US supplied 55% of Europe’s LNG imports last month, while Russia contributed just over 25%, according to Kpler, with the combined share from the two suppliers accounting for 80% of all EU gas imports. In January, the EU’s monthly LNG imports from Russia hit a record high of 2.3bcm, up more than 10% y/y and nearly a fifth of all LNG imports.

Putin’s threat is not an idle one. While at least half of Russia’s LNG exports already go to Europe, without the Qatari supplies, the demand in Asia will spike and, like Russia’s redirection of its oil exports to Asia following the twin EU oil sanctions in 2022, it should be able to redirect all those exports to markets in Asia.

“Some clients emerged that are ready to buy that same natural gas at higher prices,” Putin said, referring to global buyers willing to pay more for supplies diverted from Europe. “American companies, of course, will go somewhere where they are better paid.”

It was not clear from Putin’s remarks if he was just referring to LNG exports to Europe or if pipeline exports would be included. Although pipeline deliveries from Russia to the EU have dropped sharply since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia still supplies Hungary, Slovakia, Turkey and Serbia by pipe, which bought 18bcm of Russian gas via the TurkStream undersea pipeline last year.

Putin met Hungarian foreign minister Peter Szijjarto at the Kremlin on March 5 and suggested that Moscow intended to continue supplying what he described as reliable partners within Europe. Russia “remains ready to deliver energy resources to those who want to work with us,” he said, pointing specifically to Hungary and Slovakia as continuing customers.

Given Moscow's desire to maintain cordial ties with Hungary and Slovakia, Putin's threat is likely aimed at LNG supplies to EU, which came to nearly 21 bcm last year. The leading importers in Europe are France, Belgium and Spain, although multiple other countries take Russian LNG via these countries. 

The Russian leader's words come around two months ahead of when ice along Russia's Northern Sea Route starts to melt, which will make it easier for Russia to ship more LNG to Asia rather than Europe. If the Hormuz blockade is prolonged, Asian buyers will be scrambling for replacements for lost Qatari supplies. With other major LNG exporters like Australia and US already producing at full capacity, even Western-aligned countries like Japan may consider expanding shipments from Russia.

The outlook for gas crisis to worsen after the state-owned LNG producer QatarEnergy declared “force majeure” on its LNG exports on March 2, effectively cancelling all contractual commitments to deliver any gas to any of its customers. 

US President Donald Trump said that he hopes Operation Epic Fury will last no more than a month, but already analysts are starting to speculate that the campaign will go on for longer than that as Iran continues to rally its resources and its missile attacks penetrate Israeli air defence measure and US military assets like an important $1bn radar station in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) are successful destroyed by Iranian missiles.

Europe’s phase-out plan

The EU has already set out a staged timetable to eliminate Russian gas imports entirely by 2027. Under proposals backed by the Council of the EU, new regulations beginning in 2026 will gradually prohibit both pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas purchases from Russia.

Short-term contracts for Russian LNG are scheduled to be banned first, from April 25, 2026, followed by a ban on short-term pipeline gas contracts on June 17 the same year. The restrictions then tighten further with a prohibition on long-term LNG contracts starting January 1, 2027.

The final stage targets long-term pipeline agreements, which are due to end by September 30, 2027, although in some cases the deadline may extend to November 1, 2027 to avoid conflicts with the EU’s mandatory winter gas storage targets.

The phased approach is designed to allow European buyers time to secure alternative supplies while reducing the Kremlin’s energy revenues.

• April 25, 2026 – EU ban on short-term contracts for Russian LNG.
• June 17, 2026 – EU ban on short-term contracts for Russian pipeline gas.
• Jan. 1, 2027 – ban on long-term LNG contracts.
• Sept. 30, 2027 – ban on long-term pipeline contracts, with an alternate date of Nov. 1, 2027, in some cases tied to storage targets.

The Azerbaijan wildcard

One potential workaround occasionally discussed in energy markets is the use of swap arrangements involving Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijani gas would be exported to Europe through existing infrastructure such as the Southern Gas Corridor — including the Trans-Anatolian and Trans Adriatic pipelines — while Russia would supply equivalent volumes to Azerbaijan’s domestic market.

In effect, the arrangement would allow Europe to increase imports from Azerbaijan but actually continue to import Russian gas through the backdoor.

Analysts say the idea remains politically sensitive in Brussels because it risks undermining the EU’s efforts to sever energy ties with Moscow, ubt Europe also needs to cover its energy needs.

Some observers argue that Putin’s suggestion of halting supplies immediately may also be intended to pre-empt such compromise solutions and force European policymakers into a sharper choice during the current energy crunch.