Africa to remain key player in high-impact drilling for oil and gas in 2025

Major discoveries in South Africa’s Outeniqua Basin and Namibia’s Orange Basin, turning the region into a hotspot for high-impact exploration, particularly offshore Namibia.

What: Africa accounted for 35% of the global discovered volumes in 2024, a significant increase from just 7% in 2023.

Why: The Orange Sub-Basin, and the Cote d'Ivoire Basin were major contributors to the nearly 2.9bn boe discovered during the year.

What next: Globally, more than 35 high-impact wells are planned for 2025, with drilling taking place in both mature and frontier basins.

Exploration for oil and gas in Africa is experiencing a resurgence, marked by a gradual rise in investment since the Covid-19 pandemic-driven downturn, according to the State of African Energy: 2025 Outlook Report recently published by the African Energy Chamber (AEC).

Despite a worldwide decline in discovered oil and gas volumes, Africa remains a key exploration hub, thanks to major recent finds. Significant discoveries such as Luiperd in South Africa, Baleine in Côte d'Ivoire and Venus, Graff, and Mopane in Namibia have contributed to the continent’s strong performance in exploration.

Historically, Africa’s hydrocarbon-rich basins have attracted international exploration and production (E&P) companies. However, Southern Africa was previously overlooked owing to the lack of commercially viable finds. This trend shifted following major discoveries in South Africa’s Outeniqua Basin (since 2019) and Namibia’s Orange Basin (since 2022), turning the region into a hotspot for high-impact exploration, particularly offshore Namibia.

High-impact drilling

High-impact wells (HIWs), capable of unlocking new basins or reshaping existing exploration trends, have become increasingly important as global exploration slows and conventional resource discoveries shrink.

According to S&P Global Commodity Insights, there was a “relatively modest” 8.8bn barrels of oil equivalent found in 2024, the lowest net new discovered volumes since the 1950s and significantly lower than the last decade’s annual average of 15.4bn boe.

Although the number of New Field Wildcats (NFWs), exploratory wells drilled in previously untested areas, has declined in recent years, leading to a drop in newly discovered resources, significant finds are still being made, especially through HIWs, the market analytics firm said in its “High Impact Wells 2025” report.

“In 2024, Africa accounted for 35% of the global discovered volumes, a significant increase from just 7% in 2023. Notably, 60% of offshore Africa’s NFWs were drilled in frontier or immature basins. Areas of exploration focus in Africa were the Southwest African Coastal Basin, particularly the Orange Sub-Basin, and the Cote d'Ivoire Basin, which were major contributors to the nearly 2.9bn barrels of oil equivalent discovered during the year,” the report said.

African discoveries

According to S&P Global, the Orange Sub-Basin, the Central Arabian Province, and the Guyana Basin accounted for half of the total found resources in more than 70 basins where discoveries were made in 2024.

The Orange Sub-Basin, with notable discoveries made by Galp Energia (Portugal), TotalEnergies (France) and Shell (UK), remained a key exploration hotspot last year. Galp’s Mopane 1X was the largest find globally in 2024 and is particularly significant owing to its location in shallower waters, at depths 1,400 meters shallower than the Venus discovery.

The Mopane discovery is located north of the existing Venus and Graff finds made in early 2022 by TotalEnergies and Shell respectively. The Mopane exploration well is also boasting strong reservoir characteristics with good porosities associated with high pressures and permeabilities. The well was flow tested, achieving an outstanding flow rate of 14,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) of low-viscosity oil with minor carbon dioxide levels and no hydrogen sulphide concentrations.

The discovery has intensified Galp’s interest in its Namibian assets. With plans to farm out 50% of its 80% stake, the find has attracted significant industry attention, according to the AEC. Major oil and gas companies such as ExxonMobil, Shell, TotalEnergies, Equinor, Chevron, Azule Energy and Woodside Energy were among those interested in the opportunity valued at approximately $20bn. Mopane, along with previous discoveries, has transformed Namibia from a little-explored frontier into a prime exploration destination, drawing major players eager to tap into the country’s hydrocarbon potential.

Exploration activity in the basin persisted throughout the year, with additional HIWs planned for 2025.

In the Côte d'Ivoire Basin, Eni's Murene 1X exploration well led to the discovery of the Calao field in March 2024. Drilled approximately 45 km offshore in Block CI-205, the well encountered light oil, gas, and condensates in Cenomanian-age reservoirs with good to excellent permeability. Preliminary assessments estimated the field's potential resources between 1bn-1.5bn boe, making Calao the country’s second-largest discovery after Eni's Baleine field, discovered in 2021.

According to the AEC, the uptick in exploration spending across Africa highlights the continent’s potential to become a major energy hub. “With ongoing investments and ambitious drilling campaigns, Africa is set to significantly enhance its oil and gas output, attract further international investment, and strengthen its position in the global energy market,” says the chamber.

New exploration targets

Just 10 discoveries in 2024 contributed to 60% of the total identified resources, S&P Global Commodity Insights said. The finds were spread across Africa, the Middle East, the CIS, North America and Latin America. They were made by global integrated oil companies (GIOCs), national oil companies (NOCs), and smaller independent firms. A similar mix of operators is expected to drill HIWs in 2025.

Globally, more than 35 HIWs were planned for 2025, with drilling taking place in both mature and frontier basins, as well as in mature provinces, said the report.

Latin America and Africa will remain crucial regions for exploration, with significant wells planned in the Guyana Basin and the Orange Sub-Basin, respectively. HIWs are also scheduled in the Far East, CIS, Europe, Australasia and North America (Alaska).

Furthermore, ultra-deepwater exploration will remain prominent in 2025, highlighted by the spudding of the Komodo 1 well in the Colombian Basin at a depth of 3,920 metres, exceeding Angola’s Ondjaba 1 well, which was drilled in 2021 at 3,628 metres.

In Europe, HIW drilling will occur in the Herodotus Basin, where ExxonMobil’s Elektra well aims to increase the Eastern Mediterranean’s potential for significant production. Additionally, HIWs are planned in both mature and frontier basins in Norway.

However, the Southwest African Coastal Basin, Central Arabian Province, and Guyana Basin would remain significant players in the exploration landscape, all presenting continued opportunities for new oil discoveries in 2025, S&P Global said.

“As companies balance the challenges of portfolio optimisation, energy transition, and net-zero obligations, the strategic targeting of both high-risk, high-reward prospects and proven basins will be crucial for sustaining the momentum of resource replenishment and ensuring the continued growth and vitality of the oil and gas sector.”