Cuba's energy collapse deepens after Mexico halts key oil supplies

Mexico’s decision to suspend oil shipments to Cuba while expanding humanitarian aid has exposed the limits of its room for manoeuvre under renewed US pressure, as well as the depth of Cuba’s escalating energy and economic crisis. 

The move reflects a careful recalibration by President Claudia Sheinbaum’s government, which is attempting to shield Mexico from punitive tariffs threatened by Washington while avoiding a complete rupture with Havana.

At the centre of the dispute is a January executive order signed by US President Donald Trump declaring a national emergency with respect to Cuba and authorising sanctions and secondary tariffs on any country supplying oil to the island. 

This followed the US military intervention in Venezuela, long Cuba’s main energy provider, and the subsequent collapse of already dwindling fuel flows from Caracas in the wake of the ouster of Nicolas Maduro. According to Bloomberg, Mexico had effectively become Cuba’s principal oil supplier in recent months, covering close to 80% of its imported crude needs together with Venezuela last year, based on data from Kpler.

Sheinbaum confirmed this week that all oil shipments are currently “detained”, explicitly citing the need to avoid economic retaliation against Mexico from its key trading partner, the US. While rejecting the legitimacy of the broadening US embargo, she acknowledged that continued exports could trigger tariffs affecting Mexican trade. 

The suspension marks a sharp reversal from late 2024, when oil deliveries to Cuba increased significantly and were partly classified as humanitarian aid following Hurricane Rafael.

The scale of the commercial relationship underscores the sensitivity of the decision. Official data released by the Mexican government and cited by El País show that Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex), through its subsidiary Gasolinas Bienestar, sold nearly $1.5bn worth of crude and petroleum products to Cuba between 2023 and 2025, at market prices and under contracts denominated in pesos. 

In 2024 alone, average exports reached over 20,000 barrels per day, equivalent to 2.8% of Mexico’s total crude exports. Pemex executives stressed that the arrangement was commercial rather than concessional, and that Cuba had remained current on payments.

For Cuba, however, the halt has had immediate consequences. The communist-run island recorded its first month with zero oil imports in a decade in January, according to shipping data cited by Bloomberg.

Despite recent efforts to diversify its electricity matrix with Chinese-made solar plants, Cuba generates over 80% of its electricity from oil, with stuttering thermal power plants – many of Soviet design – relying heavily on both domestic crude and, predominantly, imported fuel.

As a result, oil shortages have rippled across the economy: aviation fuel supplies have been exhausted, forcing authorities to warn international airlines that they cannot refuel on the island, several major tourist resorts have shut down, and queues at petrol stations in Havana have stretched for hours. 

Cuban officials have previously acknowledged that national gasoline demand stands at roughly 8,200 barrels per day, a level that Mexican shipments had only just managed to cover for about a month at a time.

The humanitarian impact has been even more severe. Hospitals have suspended surgeries, restricted patient transfers and run critically low on diesel, medicines and basic supplies. Public transport networks have effectively collapsed in several provinces, with long-distance bus and ferry services curtailed due to lack of fuel, as reported by Cuban state media. Food rationing has intensified, with staples reportedly sufficient for only a few weeks.

Against this backdrop, Mexico has opted to maintain and expand non-energy assistance. Two Mexican navy vessels—the Papaloapan and Isla Holbox—departed the port of Veracruz carrying 814 tonnes of food and hygiene supplies, including rice, beans, canned fish and powdered milk. Further consignments, amounting to more than 1,500 tonnes of additional supplies, remain pending

Sheinbaum has framed the aid as a humanitarian obligation detached from ideological alignment, arguing that sanctions “should not strangle people”. Diplomatically, Mexico has positioned itself as a potential intermediary. 

The president has said her administration is pursuing channels with Washington to find a formula that would allow Cuba to receive fuel without triggering sanctions, while the Havana regime has moved from defiance to some degree of willingness to engage with the Trump administration, albeit without placing political reform on the table.

Sheinbaum's policy illustrates the tension facing middle powers under intensifying US sanctions regimes, as governments are forced towards balance economic self-interest, regional solidarity and humanitarian considerations. 

The suspension of oil exports may protect Mexico from immediate retaliation, but it removes one of the last buffers cushioning Cuba from a rapidly deepening energy shock, leaving humanitarian aid as an imperfect substitute for the fuel that underpins the island’s basic services.