EU paid €2.88bn for Russian Arctic LNG in first quarter

The EU paid an estimated €2.88bn ($3.33bn) to Russia for liquefied natural gas from the Yamal Arctic LNG project, majority owned by Novatek (NVTK.MM), in the first quarter of 2026, according to analysis of shipping data published by campaign group Urgewald on April 10. The payments were driven in part by a sharp increase in gas prices in March following geopolitical disruption in the Middle East.

Urgewald’s analysis of Kpler data shows that the EU imported 69 cargoes of LNG from Yamal during the period, accounting for 97% of the project’s total exports. A spike in the Dutch TTF front-month benchmark price from €35 per MWh in January and February to €52.87 per MWh in March — an increase of more than 51% — significantly inflated the total value of imports after the attack on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Yamal project’s shareholder structure also includes TotalEnergies (TTE.PA), China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and Silk Road Fund, linking European, Russian and Chinese interests in the Arctic development.

The data highlights Europe’s continued centrality to Russia’s flagship Arctic LNG project. China received just two cargoes in January and none in February or March, underlining the EU’s role as the primary destination for Yamal shipments.

December to June represents the most operationally constrained period for Arctic exports, as the project relies on a fleet of 14 specialised Arc7 ice-class tankers to navigate heavy sea ice. These vessels depend on rapid turnaround at European ports, while conventional LNG carriers can typically access the terminal only between June or July and November or December.

Urgewald said this reliance makes Europe “the logistical backbone of the project” rather than simply a buyer, as restricted access to EU ports would significantly reduce Yamal’s output.

Sebastian Rötters, sanctions campaigner at Urgewald, said: “In the fifth year of the war against Ukraine, the EU continues to keep Russia’s Arctic LNG sector afloat. Yamal LNG depends on a small, specialised fleet and European services to keep exports flowing, yet Europe continues to provide both. The attack on Iran must not be used as an excuse. By maintaining its dependence on gas, the EU has knowingly risked another energy crisis.

“Russia’s weaponisation of gas in 2022 was a clear warning, but that sense of urgency is no longer there. Instead, gas demand has been rising, not falling, again since 2023.

“The EU’s failure to reduce demand shows how deeply the ‘bridge fuel’ myth still shapes policy. The uncomfortable truth is that this has helped keep Arctic LNG alive throughout the war. If the EU is serious about supporting Ukraine, it must cut gas demand and take stronger action against Russian gas now.”

Urgewald estimates that EU payments — averaging about €32mn per day — could fund roughly 1,050 Shahed 136 drones every 24 hours, based on estimates from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

First and second quarter at a glance:

• 71 cargoes, 5.20mn tonnes shipped globally
• 69 cargoes, 5.07mn tonnes, 97% delivered to the EU
• 2 cargoes, 135,253 tonnes, 3% delivered to China, both in January
• February and March: zero deliveries to Asia
• Estimated EU payments to Russia: €2.88bn ($3.33bn)
• Main destinations were Zeebrugge (17), Montoir (14), Dunkerque (14), Bilbao (8), Rotterdam (6)

Monthly data shows that in January, 23 of 25 cargoes reached EU ports, generating an estimated €811mn in payments. In February, all 21 cargoes were delivered to the EU, generating €741mn. In March, 25 cargoes generated €1.33bn as prices rose sharply.

EU gas consumption declined from 413,401.8 bcm in 2021 to 330,527.6 bcm in 2023, before rising again to an estimated 340,414.7 bcm in 2025, according to Eurostat data.