EurOil: Will Europe's energy supply allow it to make it through the winter?

Europe has filled its gas storage facilities to close to 95% of capacity, and while gas prices are still very high, they are substantially down from previous spikes. How the continent’s energy system will fare this winter, however, will depend on a number of factors – many of which are highly unpredictable.

To name the biggest factor first, it will depend on how severe the winter weather proves to be, which is very hard to predict. Not only would a cold winter increase the need for heating; a low-precipitation winter would result in low hydroelectric power generation, and a still winter would lead to less wind power output. Regardless of the weather, there is then the uncertainty about how effectively France can resolve its nuclear outages. A union strike currently underway that has affected nearly a third of France’s nuclear reactors has not helped matters, delaying important maintenance work.

Then there is the outlook for natural gas supply into Europe. The upside for Russian supply is now very limited, as the suspected sabotage at the Nord Stream 1  and 2 pipelines means that at least three of the four pipeline strings will be out of service for months, if not longer. Already, Russian gas supply is under 20% of the level in 2021.

If you’d like to read more about the key events shaping Europe’s oil and gas sector then please click here for NewsBase’s EurOil Monitor.