Foreign policy ignites election showdown between Iranian candidates

Iranian presidential candidates Masoud Pezeshkian and Saeed Jalili sparred over the nuclear deal and economic policy in a televised debate late on July 1, highlighting stark differences in their approaches to Iran's most pressing issues, including sanctions removal and the FATF.

Snap elections on June 28, which were held following the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in May, did not yield a majority winner, necessitating a runoff between the top two candidates.

Masoud Pezeshkian, the only representative of the reformist faction, and Saeed Jalili, a hardliner from the ultraconservative club, will face each other on July 5 after the initial round that saw a record-low turnout. 

At the beginning of the broadcast, Pezeshkian stated, "It is unacceptable that 60% of the people did not come to the ballot box." He went on to attribute the poor turnout to the marginalisation of women and ethnic minorities in Iranian society.

The debate on July 1 started with both candidates elaborating on their policies and plans, but escalated near the end of the programme, as the two engaged in vigorous exchange over their approaches toward the nuclear deal and the FATF.

The 2015 agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), had lifted international sanctions on Iran, but the United States withdrew in 2018 and reimposed the sanctions.

Negotiations to restore the deal began when Joe Biden took power in Washington but did not yield results after multiple rounds and eventually reached an impasse.

Meanwhile, the FATF, the global money laundering and terrorist financing watchdog has blacklisted Iran for failure to comply with its requirements completely.

Together, the sanctions and the designation have severely weakened the country’s economy and restricted its international trade. Pezeshkian has been campaigning on vows to agree on the JCPOA to end the sanctions and secure the ratification of bills related to FATF obligations.

During the debate, he maintained that the country would not be able to progress and reach its economic growth targets without the two conditions.

The MP said he would drop out if his rival committed to attaining the 8% economic growth outlined in the seventh five-year development plan under the current circumstances and agreed to face punishment (execution) if failed.

Jalili, on the other hand, downplayed the importance of sanctions and FATF blacklisting, saying he would adopt alternative policies to “neutralise” the restrictions. He boasted about how the Raisi administration advanced that agenda by developing relations with the rest of the world and drawing on domestic capabilities. He also highlighted Iran’s oil sale records in the past years as a success in countering the effects of sanctions.

The debate intensified when Pezeshkian pressed his opponent on the selling price of oil and the losses incurred during its transfer by dealers.

Iran's oil exports have surged to record-breaking levels over the past year. Still, a significant portion is sold to China at heavily discounted prices, as international energy market analysts indicate. Pezeshkian also highlighted Iran’s difficulties in collecting its oil and gas revenues, as well as countries’ hesitancy in implementing deals they sign with Iran, as evidence of the nation’s isolation as a result of sanctions.

Pezeshkian noted that Iran has lost global markets, such as gas and petrochemicals, where regional countries like Qatar are now leading.

Commentary from the  streets

The televised debate, featuring Pezeshkian's frank comments, has sparked widespread discussion on social media platforms about political participation and social equity in Iran, as the country continues to face economic challenges and international pressures.

One person in Karaj, west of Tehran, noted a general scepticism about the current political climate, saying, "This heat and the melting ice will not solve any problems of the country and the nation." This comment received significant support, garnering over half a million likes.

Another person, Saeed, cautioned against believing in false promises about lifting sanctions, recalling past disappointments of the Rouhani administration: "People should not be fooled by promises to lift sanctions. Previous administrations also took votes from people with the same promises."

Omran praised Masoud Pezeshkian for his candidness despite his harsh comments. "Pezeshkian's comments were harsh, but his main point about being willing to step aside if Saeed Jalili takes real responsibility for fulfilling his economic promises is very valid," he wrote.

However, scepticism about Pezeshkian's promises also surfaced. One user doubted his ability to lift sanctions, noting, "Mr Pezeshkian himself promises to lift sanctions, which seems very unlikely.”

Another commenter was pessimistic about the possibility of negotiations under the current US administration, stating, "With Trump in power, there is no way to negotiate and lift the sanctions.” This sentiment garnered significant support.

In a critique of the debate performances, one user declared, "The biggest loser of the debates was Jalili," while another expressed concern about Pezeshkian's associations, saying, "With people like Pezeshkian coming to power, supported by some politicians who are relatives of economic corrupters like Hossein Fereydoun and Mehdi Jahangiri (family members of the former president and vice president), may God save the nation's wealth."

Pezeshkian's honesty was also called into question. "Pezeshkian claims he doesn't lie, but he lied several times during this debate," wrote one person on social media, reflecting a sentiment shared by many online.