FSUOGM: Russian energy ministry predicts 50% growth in LNG exports in 2024

Russian LNG production should grow by 50% in 2024 versus the level in 2022, according to energy ministry forecasts reported by Vedomosti on October 3. But analysts doubt that this growth is realistic, noting that a lot depends on how quickly Novatek’s Arctic LNG-2 plant ramps up its capacity.

National LNG production will rise by 5.4% year on year to 33mn tonnes in 2023, according to the energy ministry, and surge further to 47.3mn tonnes in the following year. Under the ministry’s long-term strategy, LNG production is set to reach 100mn tonnes by 2030 and 140mn tonnes by 2040.

Currently there are two large-scale liquefaction plants in operation in Russia – Novatek’s 17.5mn tonne per year Yamal LNG and Gazprom’s 9.6mn tpy Sakhalin-2. Two of Yamal LNG’s three trains went offline temporarily for repairs in 2023, and so the project’s output is expected to drop by 5% in the year, Novatek CEO Leonid Mikhelson said in February. In 2022, Arctic LNG-2 exceeded its nameplate capacity, producing 21mn tonnes of the fuel.

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