Guyanese economy grows 43.6% in 2024, offshore discoveries rise

Guyana's economy surged 43.6% in 2024, marking its fifth consecutive year of double-digit growth, driven primarily by expanding oil output and exports. The oil sector grew by 57.7%, while the non-oil sector posted a 13.1% increase, Finance Minister Ashni Singh announced during the presentation of the country's $6.63bn public budget.

The South American nation, which has become Latin America's fifth-largest crude exporter, saw its oil production rise to an average of 616,000 barrels per day from 391,000 bpd in the previous year. This increase came as the ExxonMobil-led consortium completed key offshore facility upgrades.

Oil revenues reached $2.57bn, including $348mn in royalties from the ExxonMobil group, up from $1.62bn in 2023. Energy Minister Vickram Bharrat also reported that Guyana exported 225 crude cargoes in 2024, with the government shipping 28 cargoes from its production share.

However, economic expansion is expected to moderate in 2025, with growth forecasted at 10.6%. For the first time in years, this growth will be primarily driven by the non-oil sector, as oil sector growth is projected to slow to 9.5% amid lower crude prices, with Guyana forecasting an average of $71.9 per barrel.

These developments highlight Guyana's rapid transformation into a significant oil producer, though the projected slowdown raises questions about the sustainability of its astronomical growth rates and its increasing dependence on oil revenues for economic expansion.

This comes as Guyana's offshore oil discoveries rise to 52 across its maritime blocks. ExxonMobil has dominated exploration success, accounting for 46 discoveries in the prolific Stabroek Block alone, according to the budget presentation.

The Stabroek Block's remarkable journey began with ExxonMobil's initial Liza discovery in 2015, which CEO Darren Woods has described as “one of the most successful deepwater developments in industry history.” Production, which commenced in 2019, has now surged to over 650,000 barrels per day through the Liza 1, Liza 2 and Payara developments.

The sector's growth is underpinned by exceptionally competitive economics, with average breakeven costs of $36 per barrel of Brent crude. Projects like Liza 2 and Payara achieve even lower breakeven at $25 and $32 respectively, according to IEF and S&P Commodity Insights data.

This rapid development trajectory points to significant implications for Guyana's economic future. As ExxonMobil advances additional projects like Uaru, Whiptail and Hammerhead, and with Yellowtail expected online this year, the country is poised to become the world's leading per capita oil producer. However, this transformation brings challenges in managing sudden wealth and ensuring sustainable development amid growing environmental concerns in the global energy transition.