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ICJ may rule on Guyana-Venezuela’s Essequibo dispute next year

Guyana's former Foreign Minister Carl Greenidge said that the International Court of Justice (ICJ) could deliver its ruling on the Guyana-Venezuela border controversy by 2026, marking a potential resolution to one of South America's longest-standing territorial disputes.

The Essequibo region includes vast offshore oil and gas resources, including the western part of the prolific Stabroek Block.

“Short of Venezuela's generation of new diversions, the court ought to be in a position to make a decision,” Greenidge said. He said that following Venezuela's response to Guyana's refutation due in August 2025, the court would be positioned to make its final determination.

The case, introduced to the ICJ in 2018, centres on Venezuela's challenge to the validity of the 1899 Arbitral Award that established the current border. That is, the nationality of Essequibo is being contested.

Greenidge dismissed Venezuela's counter-memorial as containing “a lot of inaccuracies and complete and outrageous fabrications.”

Despite the ICJ's December 2023 provisional measures forbidding actions that would compromise Guyana's control of the Essequibo region, Venezuela has escalated tensions. President Maduro signed the Organic Law for the Defense of Guayana Esequiba in April 2024 and recently announced plans to elect a “Governor of the Guayana Esequiba.”

These developments present a significant challenge to regional stability and the ICJ process. As Venezuela continues to defy international legal frameworks and the Argyle Agreement, the court's anticipated 2026 ruling could prove crucial in preventing further escalation of this territorial dispute, though questions remain about Venezuela's willingness to accept its outcome.

The Argyle Agreement requires that neither Guyana and Venezuela, directly or indirectly, will threaten or use force against one another “in any circumstances”.

Guyana announced that it will seek intervention from the ICJ to prevent Venezuela's plans to elect a governor for the disputed Essequibo region, escalating tensions over the resource-rich territory that comprises two-thirds of Guyana's landmass.

“The people of Guyana's Essequibo region are Guyanese nationals who live in Guyana's sovereign territory,” Guyana's foreign ministry stated, arguing that Venezuela's electoral plans would violate fundamental principles of international law. The ministry emphasised that such actions would breach the December 2022 agreement between both nations to avoid conflict escalation.

The Essequibo dispute, which dates back to the Spanish colonial period, intensified after major oil and gas discoveries off Guyana's coast in 2015. Venezuela contests the 1899 border decision drawn by international arbitrators when Guyana was under British rule, claiming that a 1966 agreement nullified the original arbitration.

This latest diplomatic clash follows recent tensions over Venezuela's construction of a military bridge on Guyana's side of Ankoko Island, which Guyana condemned as a violation of its sovereignty.

The timing of Venezuela's proposed governor election and administrative incorporation of Essequibo appears particularly provocative, as the ICJ is still processing the border dispute case, with Venezuela's response to Guyana's arguments due in late August.

As oil production in the region continues to rise amid new Guyanese offshore discoveries, this territorial dispute could have significant implications for regional stability and energy markets in South America.