IntelliNews Lambda: Europe’s deep freeze begins to bite as gas storage dips below seasonal trend

A deepening cold snap across Europe has begun to dent the continent’s gas reserves, with storage levels falling more sharply in recent days and, for the first time this winter, deviating measurably from the seasonal norm. (chart)

As of January 18, underground gas storage in the EU stood at 75.5%, down nearly 10 percentage points since January 7, according to aggregated data from Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE). While inventories remain robust by historical standards, the pace of withdrawals has accelerated markedly in response to persistently low temperatures across Western and Central Europe.

According to meteorological data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service, the second week of January brought widespread sub-zero temperatures to much of the continent, with daily lows dipping below –15°C in parts of Germany, Austria, and Poland. Heavy snowfall and icy conditions paralysed transport in France, Belgium and the Netherlands, and energy demand surged as households increased heating.

“This has been the most severe cold spell in Western Europe since at least 2012,” said a senior analyst at IntelliNews Lambda. “And we’re now seeing the gas system respond.”

Since January 1, 2026, the price of MWh of gas on the TTF exchange has increased by 27.33%, and within a week by 31.30%. 

Daily gas withdrawals, which had remained moderate through early January, increased significantly from January 10 onwards, reaching over 500 GWh/day by mid-January. Simultaneously, gas injections fell to near zero across most major storage sites, further accelerating the drawdown.

The impact is now visible in IntelliNews Lambda’s Fourier-based seasonal model, which tracks deviations from the 15-year historical storage pattern (excluding 2022–2023). As of January 18, storage levels had dropped to approximately 0.6 standard deviations above the historical mean, down from 1.7 standard deviations on January 7. This marks the most rapid contraction in relative surplus seen so far this heating season.

“Storage is still well within normal bounds, but we are now clearly below the 15-year harmonic baseline for this point in January,” said the analyst. “The system is no longer outperforming expectations — it’s tracking them.”

As IntelliNews Lambda previously reported, Europe’s gas storage unusually full in early January and this year’s cycle was one of the most stable and predictable in the last 15 years as the EU’s switch away from dependence on Russian gas appears to be going smoothly.

With temperatures plunging in late January to decade-long lows, European policymakers remain cautiously optimistic. While temperatures are forecast to moderate in late January, short-term risks remain, particularly if cold conditions persist into February. LNG deliveries continue to arrive at key terminals in the Netherlands, France, and Spain, but port congestion and shipping delays caused by Red Sea disruptions are reportedly beginning to affect cargo scheduling.

The 2025–2026 heating season began with storage at 98.5% in late October, giving Europe a large buffer against winter volatility. However, the sharp drawdown over the past 10 days serves as a reminder of how quickly that margin can erode under stress.

Updated IntelliNews Lambda modelling still projects end-of-winter storage levels around 56–58%, assuming typical seasonal demand resumes in February and March. But analysts now note an increased probability of dipping below the 56% mark, especially if temperatures remain low into mid-February or LNG imports are disrupted.

“The trajectory of this winter’s storage curve has shifted from boringly stable to watchfully normal,” said analysts. “There’s no immediate threat — but Europe is now drawing on its reserves in earnest.”