IntelliNews Lambda: Europe’s gas storage unusually full at 85% despite cold snap, forecast path largely unchanged

Europe's underground gas storage facilities remain unusually full for this point in the heating season, with inventories at 85.1% on January 7, according to aggregated data from GIE. (chart)

Despite a persistent cold snap across much of Western and Central Europe, storage levels remain closely aligned with seasonal patterns, bolstered by strong LNG imports from the US and subdued industrial demand thanks to Europe’s deindustrialisation.

Weather conditions in December 2025 and early January 2026 have been significantly colder than seasonal norms across much of Europe. A persistent Arctic air mass settled over Northern and Central Europe from mid-December, driving temperatures well below average in Germany, Poland, and the Nordics.

Unusually, Berlin is currently covered in snow and daily lows, along with Warsaw, routinely dropped below –10°C, while snowfall has also disrupted transport across France and the Benelux region. According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, the final two weeks of December ranked among the coldest starts to winter in Western Europe since 2010. The cold spell extended into early January, increasing residential heating demand and prompting a noticeable uptick in daily gas withdrawals.

The cold snap boost in demand has had little impact on overall gas storage levels which has been mitigated by sustained LNG arrivals, particularly into Spain, France and the Netherlands.

According to IntelliNews Lambda’s Fourier-based seasonal model built on 15 years of gas storage data — excluding the outlier years of 2022 and 2023 — current storage levels sit approximately 1.7 standard deviations above the historical mean for early January – the lowest deviation from the baseline curve in the last 15 years. The divergence from the norm is extremely modest and suggests an extremely stable and predictable gas market.

“The trajectory of this year’s gas drawdown has remained highly predictable,” said analysts at IntelliNews Lambda. “The sinusoidal shape of seasonal storage trends is holding remarkably well, and deviations from the base curve are still within typical bounds or below.”

The 2025–2026 heating season began with EU storage nearly full at 98.5% in late October, thanks to robust summer injections and a mild start to winter. While temperatures plunged in December and early January, LNG cargoes — particularly from the United States — surged, offsetting withdrawals from European reserves.

Forecasts based on the base curve suggest that gas storage will bottom out at 56.3% around March 21–25 with a 95% probability, assuming typical seasonal consumption continues. That figure is marginally higher than IntelliNews Lambda’s December projections, reflecting continued supply inflows and demand moderation in energy-intensive sectors even in the face of higher heating demand thanks to the cold weather.

The limited deviation from historical patterns marks a sharp contrast with the turbulence of 2022 and 2023, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Nord Stream pipeline sabotage, and rapid market restructuring led to highly unpredictable storage behaviour.

“With a standard deviation still under two sigma from the historical norm, the trajectory of this winter’s storage curve is not only stable — it’s boringly stable,” said IntelliNews Lambda analysts. “That is exactly what Europe needs right now.”

European policymakers have credited structural reforms, accelerated LNG terminal expansions, and coordinated demand-reduction measures for the system’s resilience. Still, risks remain: a prolonged cold spell, supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, or derailments in US LNG output could alter the picture quickly.

But for now, storage trends suggest Europe is on course to end winter with healthy reserves, potentially easing pressure for summer 2026 injections and strengthening the bloc’s energy security posture heading into next winter.