MOL-NIS deal faces uncertainty after Orbán defeat

The planned sale of a majority stake in Serbia’s oil company NIS to Hungary’s MOL Group has become increasingly uncertain following Viktor Orbán’s defeat in Hungary’s general election, though Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vucic said he still expects a deal to proceed.

Vucic told state broadcaster RTS on April 13 that Serbia and MOL were close to a shareholder agreement on restructuring NIS, which is majority-owned by Russia’s Gazprom and Gazprom Neft and is under US sanctions.

He said he had spoken with MOL representatives, who assured him they still expected to sign a shareholder agreement soon. “Of course, it is not easy to sign… but I believe that we will find a compromise and resolve it,” he said.

The US imposed sanctions on NIS in October 2025 over its Russian ownership, requiring the divestment of Russian capital.

In January, Gazprom Neft agreed in principle to sell its 44.9% stake in NIS to MOL, along with an 11.3% holding owned by a Gazprom subsidiary. If completed and approved by Washington, the deal would give MOL 56.15% control.

Last month, the US extended NIS’s existing licence until April 17. The waiver allows the company to continue operations including refinery processing, crude imports, financial transactions and fuel supply.

NIS said on April 9 it had requested a new licence from the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) to maintain operations after the current permit expires.

Vucic said the current deadline for negotiations on the sale runs until May 22 and expressed hope Washington would extend the operating licence.

“That deadline has been extended until May 22, and we have a licence until April 17. I expect and hope that the licence will be extended,” he said. “We and our Hungarian friends worked, I believe that [US Vice President] J.D. Vance was informed about it during his stay in Budapest, and I think that in the worst case we should hope, or expect favourable news on that matter.”

Despite Vucic’s optimism, Orbán’s defeat to Péter Magyar has raised questions over regional energy and infrastructure projects built on close political alignment between Budapest and Belgrade.

Orbán has been a key ally of Vucic and a supporter of Serbia’s EU accession bid. His role had also helped anchor Serbia’s balancing act between Western sanctions pressure and continued energy cooperation with Moscow.

The NIS transaction depends not only on commercial terms but also on political coordination across Washington, Budapest and Moscow. Orbán had been a key intermediary between US policymakers enforcing sanctions, Russian stakeholders seeking an exit and Serbia trying to preserve its energy stability.

Serbia and Hungary have also jointly developed major infrastructure projects, including the Belgrade–Budapest high-speed railway and a planned oil pipeline linked to the Druzhba system. The future of such projects is now uncertain following Hungary’s political shift.

Vucic congratulated Hungary’s new leader Péter Magyar on April 13, writing on X: “I am confident that the strong cooperation between Hungary and Serbia will continue to grow,” adding he was “also grateful to Viktor Orbán for helping make such relations possible.”

However, tensions quickly emerged after Magyar suggested Moscow was exerting influence in the region through the network of alliances linking Belgrade, Budapest and Bratislava.

“I know exactly what is going on in Serbia, and I also know what kind of entanglement exists between the Orbán government and Vučić-led Serbia, and between Slovakia’s Robert Fico and Viktor Orbán,” Magyar said at a press conference on April 13. “I also know roughly who is behind this — who is the godfather behind these great friendships.”

Vucic responded sharply in his RTS interview, calling the remarks “foolish and irresponsible,” Euronews reported.

Orbán’s departure removes a key intermediary in talks over Russian-linked assets such as NIS, potentially complicating coordination among stakeholders with divergent priorities in Washington, Moscow and Belgrade.

“The entire deal seemingly hinged on Orbán’s unique ability to act as a bridge between Washington, which has sanctioned NIS, and Russia, which is selling its majority share. With Orbán gone, the status of that deal is unclear,” analyst Lily Lynch wrote in a Substack post.

Serbia has warned of potential supply risks if sanctions-related issues are not resolved, recalling disruptions in December and January when crude deliveries were cut and the central bank sold foreign currency reserves to stabilise the market.

MOL’s commercial interest in acquiring NIS is expected to remain, but the political framework underpinning the deal — and the assumption of a single dominant regional broker — has weakened following Orbán’s defeat.