Most Gulf and European ships likely blocked from Hormuz despite Iran's 'open to all' claim

Iran's declaration that the Strait of Hormuz is open to all vessels except "enemy" ships would in practice exclude most countries in the Persian Gulf and many in Europe, Former steel CEO and energy Russian analyst Alexander Frolov said on March 22.

"For Iran, beyond the US and Israel, enemy vessels will include those of countries on whose territory American military bases are located and from whose territory strikes are being launched. Practically all countries in the region, as well as many European ones, will fall under suspicion," Frolov, deputy director general of Russia's Institute of National Energy, told Abzats.

Iran's representative to the International Maritime Organisation Ali Mousavi had said Tehran would permit passage for all ships except those of "enemy" states. But Frolov said the definition was being kept deliberately vague.

"By not giving clear formulations, Iran retains the ability to negotiate on an individual basis. The Iranian leadership also says it does not consider the Strait of Hormuz closed."

The approach amounts to a two-track strategy: maintaining a chokehold on global shipping while offering selective access to states willing to deal bilaterally with Tehran. India, Pakistan, Iraq, Malaysia and China are already negotiating transits through an IRGC-controlled corridor near Larak Island, with at least one operator paying $2mn for passage.

Frolov said the positioning offered some hope.

"Prices will be high, but there will be no price shock and it is possible to negotiate." He added that elevated oil prices also benefited Russia through higher export revenues.

The comments came as G7 leaders urged Trump to end the war as quickly as possible over concerns about shipping safety. Trump responded on March 22 by giving Iran a 48-hour ultimatum to fully reopen the strait or face strikes on its power plants.

Iran's parliament speaker Ghalibaf warned that any such attack would trigger "irreversible" destruction of energy infrastructure across the Persian Gulf.

"Immediately after power plants and infrastructure in our country are targeted, critical infrastructure and energy and oil infrastructure across the entire region will be considered legitimate targets and will be irreversibly destroyed, and oil prices will remain elevated for a long time," Ghalibaf wrote on X following Donald Trump's post on Truth Social hours before.

"If Iran doesn't FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST!" Trump wrote.