Nigeria’s oil output falls 4.37% in March, widening gap with OPEC quota

Nigeria’s crude oil production declined by 4.37% in March to 1.401mn barrels per day (bpd), further widening the gap between actual output and the country’s OPEC quota, the April OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) has revealed.

The drop represents a reduction of 64,000 bpd from February’s figure of 1.465mn bpd. March production was 6.6% below Nigeria’s assigned OPEC quota of 1.5mn bpd and 32% lower than the government’s 2025 target of 2.06mn bpd.

Persistent structural issues continue to affect production volumes. Underinvestment, ageing infrastructure, vandalism, and widespread crude theft have limited Nigeria’s ability to raise output despite its significant reserves.

The output decline comes at a time of growing economic strain. Oil remains the country’s primary source of foreign exchange and government revenue. Falling production, combined with weaker prices, adds pressure to fiscal stability. OPEC’s reference basket price dropped by 3.7% month-on-month to an average of $74 per barrel in March, while Brent crude fell to $71.47 per barrel due to geopolitical instability and global trade tensions.

Nigeria’s daily output remains well below its early 2024 peak of 1.7mn barrels per day. The federal government has committed to tackling theft and upgrading infrastructure while pursuing new investment to reverse the trend.

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) also reported a 5% fall in production in February compared to January, marking two consecutive months of decline