NorthAmOil: Biden unlikely to change course even with a Republican-led congress

President Joe Biden and his administration are unlikely to change course if there is a divided government following the midterm elections on November 8, says a leading oil lobbyist.

“I do not see the administration changing their policies – they did not change them when [gasoline] prices were most high,” said the American Petroleum Institute (API)’s senior vice president of policy, economics and regulatory affairs, Frank Macchiarola. He spoke at a post-election webinar convened by Bracewell, the law and lobbying firm.

“We continue to see the government turn over – there is a divided electorate,” he said.

As of November 10, Republicans were poised to take control of the House with a majority that could stymie Biden’s pro-renewables and climate policy. But control of the Senate remained up in the air – and in fact it may not be known until a run-off election in Georgia on December 6.

But importantly, Republicans lawmakers would not have the veto-proof two-thirds majority required in both congressional chambers to push through legislation against a president from an opposing party. US presidents can veto legislation. Biden is a Democrat. 

Since the previous election in 2020, Democrats have held thin majorities in both chambers.

With much of the outcome of the US midterm elections still unknown, the stock market has been jittery.

Democrats did much better than expected in the elections, avoiding the rout that analysts and pundits had predicted. The November 8 midterm election in fact represented the poorest performance for a party out of power – the Republicans – in 40 years.

Conventional political wisdom says that Americans vote on the basis of cost of living, so Democrats were expected to be pummelled at the polls. They were not, and it is not yet clear why, though the results seem to be a castigation of ex-president Donald Trump and many of the candidates who supported him.

“The [election] takeaway is that things are great,” said Macchiarola. “It’s a confusing takeaway.”

“[The election] was a lost opportunity for the Republicans,” he added.

Generally, Republicans – and a few conservative Democrats in states such as Texas – would be expected to try to increase oil and gas drilling, and to roll back Biden’s aggressive climate agenda. Democrats tend to be pro renewable energy and climate action.