NorthAmOil: Oil supply glut set to stymie Trump's call to 'drill, baby, drill!”

President-elect Donald Trump’s pledge to "frack, frack, frack" is set to clash with a world awash in oil, potentially capping US shale production despite his ambitions to expand it. He has vowed to boost shale output, even saying prices at the pump could drop if producers "drill themselves out of business." However, his upcoming term follows two years of record-breaking US oil production.

Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect only modest growth in output – around 251,000 barrels per day (bpd) up until 2025 – the slowest pace since the 2020 pandemic slump. Trump’s ability to speed things up appears limited. Proposals like opening federal land to drilling would take years to bear fruit, while policies like a potential trade war with China could hurt global demand for crude.

“There’s a lag between opening lands, auctioning them off, drilling, and setting up infrastructure,” explained Ed Morse, an adviser at Hartree Partners. He believes significant gains from Trump’s energy policies would not materialise during his second term.

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