NorthAmOil: US rig counts down but production bouncing back

The US’ active rig count edged down by one last week, according to oilfield services firm Baker Hughes. This marked the first time the US rig count had fallen since November.
The small change does not necessarily indicate a reversal of the overall upward trend in recent months, but does show that US drillers continue to proceed with caution.
In the week up to March 12, the oil-focused rig count in the US dropped to 309 from 310 the previous week, while the gas rig count stayed flat at 92 for a total of 402 active rigs in the country. While rig counts have been recovering over the past four months, they are still at less than half the levels seen a year ago, when the total was reported at 792.
These figures have been released around the same time as the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has issued updates to its Drilling Productivity Report, which forecasts short-term production trends in the major shale plays, and its Short-Term Energy Outlook. The agency is forecasting that oil and gas production from the US’ seven leading shale plays will fall by 46,000 barrels per day (bpd) and 316mn cubic feet (8.9mn cubic metres) per day respectively in April compared with March. However, it anticipates that both oil and gas output will rise slightly in the Permian Basin, with gas production also projected to rise in the Haynesville shale.
Separately, the EIA estimated in its Short-Term Energy Outlook that while US crude production had fallen to an average of 10.4mn bpd in February, mainly on the impact of freezing temperatures, it would rise to almost 11mn bpd in March. The agency expects US oil output to average 11.1mn bpd over the course of 2021 and 12.0mn bpd in 2022.