Norway projects record oil and gas investments in 2025

Norway has raised its forecast for oil and gas investments in 2025 to NOK269bn ($24.7bn), the highest figure since investment statistics began, driven largely by increased activity at producing fields, Statistics Norway said on May 27.

The revised estimate marks a 6% increase from the previous quarterly projection and reflects a 9% nominal rise compared to the equivalent forecast for 2024 issued a year earlier. In the previous survey, the year-on-year growth was projected at only 4.2%.

The increase is mainly attributed to the reclassification of several projects from development to production status, which moved spending from the field development category to "fields on stream." A 13% rise in spending on producing fields contributed most to the overall upgrade. While the field development category showed a technical decline, units currently under development reported higher estimates compared with the first-quarter survey.

The 2025 estimate also includes minor upward adjustments in spending on pipeline transportation and exploration and concept studies, while forecasts for onshore activity and decommissioning remained stable.

Total oil and gas spending is expected to peak this year following strong growth in 2023 and 2024. That surge was driven by a favourable oil tax framework introduced by the Norwegian parliament in 2020, which incentivised companies to submit development plans (PDOs) before the end of 2022. Several smaller projects are now operational, while larger ones are either at or approaching peak investment.

Statistics Norway noted that few new developments have emerged since the 2022 deadline, and ongoing projects are gradually moving past their capital-intensive phases. As a result, investment in field development is expected to decline in 2026. However, the strong pipeline of activity in producing fields will continue to support high overall investment levels in the near term.

Looking ahead, the preliminary investment estimate for 2026 has also been revised upward to NOK207bn, 4.8% higher than the initial projection made last quarter. Nevertheless, the figure remains 4.3% below the corresponding forecast for 2025 published in Q2 2024, reflecting an anticipated moderation in activity.

The 2026 estimate increase is again driven by fields on stream, with additional support from pipeline transport and field development. Other categories were mostly unchanged. The projected decline is led by reduced field development activity and lower spending on exploration and concept studies, though this is partially offset by increased estimates for decommissioning and onshore operations.

In Q1 2025, final oil and gas investment came in at NOK61bn, down 9.8% from the previous quarterly estimate and 11% lower than Q4 2024 on an unadjusted basis. However, seasonally adjusted figures showed a 0.8% quarter-on-quarter increase, reflecting the typical dip in first-quarter investment levels. The growth was driven mainly by increased activity in fields on stream, while field development slowed.