Norwegian oil, gas supply beats forecasts in April

Norwegian oil and gas production beat forecasts in April, the Norwegian Offshore Directorate (NOD) reported on May 22.

Liquids supply – including oil and condensate – averaged 2.104mn barrels per day (bpd) in April, beating the forecast by 5.3%. Production was up 0.7% month on month and 2.6% year on year. Crude oil output alone came to 1.85mn bpd, surpassing the forecast by 5.2% and rising 0.5% month on month and 2.8% year on year.

The government expects liquids supply to decline by 3% this year, to 1.95mn bpd, as growth in 2023 at Johan Sverdrup, Western Europe’s largest oilfield, will be offset by falling output elsewhere.

Norwegian gas supply was also 7% higher in April than forecast, averaging 347mn cubic metres (mcm) per day. While it was up 1.4% year on year, it was down 5.3% month on month.

NOD predicts that Norwrgian gas supply will climb 3% this year to 2.06mn barrels of oil equivalent per day.

Norway has become Europe’s largest oil and gas supplier following Russia’s significant cuts in pipeline gas shipments to the continent and the EU introducing an embargo on most Russian oil imports.

Looking further ahead, NOD projects that oil output will rise to 2.1mn bpd in 2025, boosted by the anticipated start of the Johan Castberg oilfield in the Barents Sea, but then decline to 1.83mn bpd in 2028. Gas output is expected to come to around 120bn cubic metres (bcm) annually between 2024 and 2027, before dropping to 117.4 bcm in 2028.

Investments in oil and gas, including exploration and production, are set to rise to an eight-year high to NOK240bn ($23.2bn) this year, from NOK227bn in 2023.

"This is due, among other things, to high activity, a weaker Norwegian currency and cost growth,” the directorate said when it made the forecast in January.