OUTLOOK 2026 Ghana

ED – this is bne IntelliNews's annual OUTLOOK report for Ghana. We are making forward-looking assessments for major Global Emerging Markets in Emerging Europe, Asia, Latin America, Africa and the Middle East, drawing on insightful reporting from our bureaus around the world.

What is on the agenda? What are the prospects for economic growth, and what problems lie in store in the coming year? The detailed reports cover business, economics, finance, energy, politics and the major sectors of the most important markets.

Ghana enters 2026 in a markedly stronger position than during the 2022–23 balance-of-payments and debt crisis. The IMF-supported Extended Credit Facility (ECF) programme remains on track, external debt restructuring has progressed materially, and macro-stability has largely been restored. IMF staff now project real GDP growth of about 4.8% in 2026, underpinned by firmer exports, easing inflation and a gradual recovery in domestic confidence.

Politically, the authorities face a delicate balancing act: sustaining fiscal consolidation and reform momentum while responding to social pressures after several years of high inflation, currency depreciation and income erosion. The post-2024/25 political landscape has shifted, but it has not reduced the binding constraint of fiscal discipline, particularly under the strengthened Fiscal Responsibility Framework, which caps deficits and anchors medium-term debt reduction.

On the macroeconomic front, growth in 2025 is expected in the 3.9–4.5% range, reflecting a transition from post-crisis stabilisation to a more measured expansion. Momentum is expected to strengthen gradually toward around 5% in 2026–27 as confidence effects from debt restructuring, lower inflation and improved FX availability feed through to investment, construction and services.

External balances have improved decisively. Strong export receipts from gold, cocoa and hydrocarbons, combined with import compression and lower oil prices, have pushed the current account into surplus in 2024–25, supporting cedi appreciation and reserve accumulation. The IMF expects this external position to remain broadly supportive into 2026, reducing vulnerability to external shocks, although commodity-price volatility remains a key risk.

Ghana’s economic growth outlook faces rising downside risks, driven by potential volatility in global gold prices and mounting security threats from the Sahel, according to Fitch Solutions, even as its Commodities Team expects bullion to average a record $3,700 per ounce in 2026. Beyond commodity risks, Fitch pointed to growing regional insecurity as another major threat to Ghana’s economic trajectory, citing the worsening Islamist insurgency across the Sahel.

Meanwhile, inflation has fallen sharply, from above 50% at the height of the crisis to around 6.3% in November 2025, the lowest reading since the CPI rebasing. With inflation expectations easing and monetary credibility improving, the authorities and IMF project inflation to remain within the 8%±2% target band in 2026, creating scope for further but cautious policy-rate easing from current levels in the high-teens, provided fiscal discipline is maintained.

Fiscal policy remains firmly contractionary. The primary balance swung into surplus in 2025, estimated at around 1.5% of GDP, and the authorities have committed to maintaining a comparable surplus in the 2026 budget. This is central to restoring debt sustainability, rebuilding credibility with creditors and anchoring expectations under the Fiscal Responsibility Framework.

Debt risks remain elevated but are substantially reduced compared with 2023. An official creditor agreement providing about $2.8bn in relief through rescheduling of 2022–26 payments, alongside ongoing negotiations with commercial creditors, has eased near-term financing pressures and underpins the IMF’s more benign debt trajectory for 2026 and beyond. The pace and completeness of commercial restructuring remain critical swing factors.

The banking sector is liquid and broadly solvent, but continues to grapple with elevated non-performing loans (NPLs) following the Domestic Debt Exchange Programme (DDEP). Conditions are gradually improving, and private-sector credit is expected to recover only slowly in 2026, as banks rebuild capital buffers and state-owned bank recapitalisation is finalised.

Energy and power remain a double-edged risk. Ghana has ample installed generation capacity of over 5.2–5.7GW, largely thermal, but legacy arrears and contingent liabilities continue to weigh on public finances. Recent progress in renegotiating IPP contracts, implementing quarterly tariff adjustments, and strengthening the cash-waterfall mechanism is expected to reduce fiscal risks and improve sector sustainability through 2026.

Market access is gradually normalising. Domestic yields have declined sharply as inflation falls, and the authorities plan to deepen local-currency issuance in 2026. A full return to international bond markets will hinge on the timely completion of commercial debt restructuring, continued programme performance and sustained policy credibility.

Overall, Ghana’s outlook for 2026 is one of fragile but improving stability: growth is recovering, inflation is under control and external pressures have eased, but the durability of the recovery will depend on maintaining reform discipline, completing debt restructuring and translating macro-stability into broader employment and income gains.

To access the full Outlook 2026 for Ghana click here