Qatar's energy minister warns Gulf-wide production shutdown looms

All energy exporters in the Persian Gulf will be forced to suspend production within weeks if the Iran conflict continues, Qatar's Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi warned in an interview with the Financial Times on March 5.

The Gulf's shipping lanes have effectively shut down since February 28, with at least 10 vessels struck, insurance premiums surging and major carriers including Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, MSC and COSCO all suspending bookings.

Kaabi said the economic consequences of the war would be felt globally, predicting crude oil could hit $150 per barrel within two to three weeks if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained blocked.

He forecast natural gas prices would quadruple from pre-war levels to $40 per MMBTU.

Qatar declared force majeure on LNG deliveries this week after Iranian drones struck the Ras Laffan facility, the backbone of the country's gas export infrastructure.

Kaabi, who also serves as chief executive of QatarEnergy, said damage assessments were still under way and the full extent of the destruction remained unclear.

He said around 9,000 workers were evacuated from offshore operations within 24 hours after the military flagged an imminent threat to those facilities, though no offshore damage had been reported.

The minister told the FT he expected every Gulf energy exporter that had not yet invoked force majeure to do so within days, warning that those who delayed risked legal liability for failing to meet contractual obligations.

Kaabi said restoring normal operations would take "weeks to months" even if fighting stopped immediately. Qatar's fleet of 128 LNG tankers is now dispersed globally, with only a handful currently within reach. Each vessel takes one to two days to load, with capacity to fill six or seven at a time.

The country's $30bn North Field/South Pars expansion, which aimed to raise output from 77mn to 126mn tonnes per year by 2027, would also face delays. First production had been expected in the third quarter of this year.

Europe faces a particularly difficult period, Kaabi warned, as competition for remaining gas supplies would see Asian buyers outbid European counterparts.

The impact would extend well beyond energy markets into petrochemicals and fertiliser production, both of which depend heavily on Gulf feedstocks.

Despite US President Donald Trump's offer to provide naval escorts and supplementary insurance for vessels transiting the strait, Kaabi said the waterway was still too dangerous for commercial traffic.

He said QatarEnergy would not resume production until the military confirmed a complete end to hostilities. Putting workers back in harm's way was not an option.