REM: By 2035, solar could be 40% of US electricity generation, says Biden administration

Large-scale decarbonisation of the US electricity sector could increase solar from 3% of generation today to more than 40% by 2035, according to a new issue brief by the US Department of Energy (DoE). This could happen if the US makes “historic investments”, says the brief.

“Realising this potential for solar generation requires historic investments to accelerate deployment of residential, commercial and utility-scale solar systems, including in disadvantaged and low-income communities,” said the White House in a fact sheet accompanying the brief.

Biden’s proposed investments in the Bipartisan Infrastructure Deal – currently being debated in Congress – and his Build Back Better Agenda could lead to a “largely decarbonised electricity sector by 2035” and result in 1.5mn solar jobs, it says.

“The pipeline of new solar projects in 2021 is on pace to hit record highs,” said the brief. “To reach a largely decarbonised electricity sector by 2035, solar deployment would need to accelerate to three to four times faster than the current rate by 2030.” This is according to preliminary results of an upcoming analysis by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL).

The issue brief is important because it lays out the Biden administration's thinking on a vital sector of renewable energy and how it can be deployed in the fight against the climate crisis. Congress will this autumn debate the Democrats’ budget plan that is expected to include a huge investment in fighting climate change.

"It’s encouraging to see the Biden administration continue to prioritise accelerating the transition to a renewable energy economy," Gregory Wetstone, president and CEO of the American Council on Renewable Energy (ACORE), told Utility Dive in a statement. "As the report makes clear, seizing this growth opportunity will require rapid transformation of the power sector and significant investment in a 21st century grid. But the payoff will be both climate protection and greater economic prosperity."

Biden is prioritising solar, onshore and offshore wind power, carbon capture and clean hydrogen, as well as keeping America’s current nuclear fleet online. The president’s Build Back Better Agenda, unveiled earlier this year, includes improved and extended tax credits for solar and wind energy as well as a clean energy standard, which would require utilities to buy increasing amounts of non-carbon energy.

More specifically, it includes the extension of $300bn in tax cuts for clean electricity, including solar, making it cheaper to build, and funding for new transmission and energy storage infrastructure to help deliver clean, reliable power to homes and businesses, said the White House.

President Biden also proposed a new ‘Clean Energy Accelerator’ to leverage private capital for community solar projects, particularly in low-income and disadvantaged communities, it noted. These investments, along with the proposed Energy Efficiency and Clean Electricity Standard, can help achieve the president’s goal of 100% carbon pollution-fee power by 2035, said the White House.

Solar is already the fastest-growing source of new electricity generation in the nation – having expanded nearly 4,000% in just over a decade, from about 2.5 GW_dc of solar capacity in 2010 to more than 100 GW_dc today. That could power some 18mn American homes. Despite the impact of the pandemic on the economy, the US installed nearly 20 GW_dc of solar photovoltaics (PV) in 2020 – the largest yearly total ever.

According to recent Energy Information Administration (EIA) figures, 15 GWac of utility-scale PV projects is currently under construction, 7 GWac have received regulatory approval, and 20 GWac are planned. At the end of 2020, over 450 GW of solar and solar plus storage projects had applied for interconnection to the bulk power system – or 54% of all active projects. Not all of these projects will be constructed, but this project list is a useful indicator of the strong growth in solar, notes the issue brief.

The immediate need for action on climate change has been made clear in the recent report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), noted the brief. Limiting the rise in global temperatures would help avoid future catastrophic changes, but the path to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius is narrowing. Without immediate and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, this warming goal will be beyond reach, it said.

“President Biden’s goal to achieve a carbon pollution-free power sector by 2035, in conjunction with a proposal for historic investments in US infrastructure, are critical steps toward combatting the climate crisis and reducing greenhouse gas emissions at the right pace and scale,” said the brief. “America’s shift to a clean energy future requires investment in a vast renewable energy technologies portfolio, which includes solar energy.”

Solar costs have declined 70-80% since 2010, thanks in part to DoE investments, noted the brief. This has lowered the price of a typical 6-kW residential system by almost $30,000, said the White House. PV is already the least expensive electricity option in dozens of states, it noted.

The Solar Energy Technology Office at the DoE has set a new 2030 goal of cutting the current cost of PV of 4.6 cents per kWh to 3 cents per kWh by 2025 and 2 cents per kWh by 2030. This would be $0.05 per kWh without subsidies, delivering nearly $14,000 in savings for a typical home system.

The US is undergoing a clean energy revolution, and solar energy will play an important role in that transition, the brief concluded. The country can build upon the success in solar innovation and growth of the past two decades. Bold investments can accelerate solar deployment nationally and, in the process, create thousands of high-quality jobs at home, expand manufacturing and make solar more affordable for all communities, it said.