REM: Fossil fuel emissions to peak by 2025 as global decarbonisation accelerates

Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels will soon reach an inflection point, according to Rystad Energy. Global CO2 emissions from all sources are on track to peak at around 39 gigatonnes per year (tpy) by 2025, before declining steadily as industries reduce their carbon footprint. The data is based on current global policies, projects, industry trends and technological advancements.

"Peaking fossil fuel CO2 emissions in the next two years is a significant global accomplishment, given the current supply chain challenges and focus on energy security," says Artem Abramov, head of clean tech research at Rystad Energy. "If this momentum is maintained, limiting global warming to less than 2.0 degrees Celsius is achievable."

Rystad’s data show a peak of 39 tpy in 2025, but that timeline could move up to as early as next year if the short-term macroeconomic outlook accelerates the energy transition, it says.

Emissions had already reached a record high in 2022, and emissions will keep increasing until 2025, and after that they will decrease, says Rystad. Direct CO2 emissions from power and heat generation will peak in 2023, with a gradual decline in the coming years.

In 2022, a record amount of new renewable energy capacity was added, but low-carbon supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressure weakened the impact.