REM: “Staggering” volume of US green energy build projected by 2030

A “staggering” 600 GW of clean-energy build is projected to be built in the US by 2030, according to BloombergNEF forecasts.

This follows the passage of the nation’s most ambitious climate legislation to date, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), signed into law in August.

Despite structural constraints, such as permitting and grid connections, and the higher cost of capital threaten buildout, BNEF expects favourable economics and demand for clean power from states, utilities, corporations, households and investors to push green build forward.

Despite rising grid connection bottlenecks and curtailment risks in Texas and California, the US solar boom is on its way, said the clean energy research group. More states and utilities are building solar projects, and more of these will also add storage. Developing large-scale solar in the US takes at least four years in most regions, except Texas, where it is faster. Rooftop solar, especially residential paired with batteries, will continue to grow despite subsidies being phased out.

Onshore wind installations will decline in 2023 for a third year in a row as a diminished pipeline, supply chain constraints and transmission bottlenecks stifle build. BNEF expects onshore wind installations to pick up in the latter half of the decade, as these obstacles ease and the tax incentives in the IRA drive additional build.

Offshore wind will proliferate in the Mid-Atlantic and New England, with California and the Southeast emerging as newer markets later in the decade. Total annual wind build will surpass 14 GW by 2025 and climb to 24 GW by 2030.

The US installed 4.7 GW/12.7 GWh of energy storage in 2022, led by California and Texas. By 2030, capacity is expected to reach 123 GW/430 GWh, driven by state policy targets and tax credit incentives. Supply chain disruptions caused delays, but large solar paired with storage (PVS) projects remain key for the decarbonisation plans of California and the Mountain West utilities. Long-duration storage (LDES) demand is growing, with demonstration projects underway in various states.