Russian LNG exports hit new record in 2024

Russia exported a record 33.6mn tonnes of LNG in 2024, up 4% from the previous year, according to data from Kpler cited by Russian news agency RBC this week, with Europe remaining the country’s biggest market despite the EU’s push to end all use of Russian energy.

More than half of Russia’s LNG exports – 52% – went to Europe in 2024, an increase of 4 percentage points from 2023. This share has held steady since 2021 despite the EU’s broader sanctions on Russian energy following its invasion of Ukraine. EU sanctions have so far targeted Russian LNG transshipments rather than direct LNG imports, a ban on which would require unanimous approval among member states. A roadmap for phasing out Russian LNG by 2027, initially planned for publication this month, has been delayed until the end of March.

France was the largest European importer of Russian LNG in 2024, purchasing 6.3mn tonnes, followed by Spain with 4.8mn tonnes, Belgium with 4.4mn tonnes and the Netherlands with 1.3mn tonnes. However, these figures do not fully represent consumption, as some countries, like Germany, indirectly import Russian LNG via neighbouring states. Although Germany has banned Russian LNG shipments to its terminals, 3–9% of the gas consumed in Germany still originates from Russia, largely routed through France, according to Kpler.

Russian LNG accounted for nearly 20% of the EU’s total LNG imports in 2024. In Asia, China and Japan narrowly surpassed individual European countries, importing 7mn tonnes and 5.7mn tonnes, respectively.

Two-thirds of Russia’s LNG exports – 21.1mn tonnes – came from Novatek’s Yamal LNG plant, which remains unaffected by Western sanctions. In contrast, there were no shipments from the Arctic LNG-2 project, which has been hit by stringent US sanctions in autumn 2023. Arctic LNG-2’s first train completed commissioning at the start of last year, but sanctions have prevented it from finding any buyers for cargoes.

The EU’s import volumes correspond with a rise in the monetary value of LNG trade. European statistics show a record €7.32bn ($7.63bn) in LNG imports from Russia in 2024, representing 17.5mn tonnes and a 14% increase from the previous year.

Despite the record LNG exports, Russia’s overall share of the EU gas market has fallen dramatically. Since the suspension of Russian pipeline gas deliveries following the invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s market share in the EU has dropped from 40% to just 6%.

According to Vaibhav Raghunandan, an analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), European companies are prioritising economic interests over political considerations by continuing to buy discounted Russian LNG, which remains cheaper than alternatives. “In the absence of sanctions targeting the product itself, companies act purely on business interests and purchase increasing volumes from the cheapest supplier,” he said.

Russia faces an uncertain future in the European market, even without the imposition of a full LNG embargo. Analysts interviewed by RBC predict Russian LNG exports will rise to 35mn tonnes in 2025, driven by Arctic LNG-2, which plans to use Asia-bound LNG carriers ordered from Asian shipyards. However, exports to Europe are likely to decline as the EU builds its liquefaction capacity and shifts to other suppliers, including Qatar and the US.

The window of “irreplaceability” for Russian LNG is narrowing, with analysts suggesting it may last only a few more years. Excess liquefaction capacity in Qatar and the US is expected to come online soon, reducing Europe’s reliance on Russian LNG.

In January 2025, Europe is forecast to increase overall LNG imports by 8.7% from December to replenish its depleted gas storage facilities. However, imports from Russia are expected to decline by nearly 12% from a record 1.81mn tonnes in December, according to Reuters projections.

Political dynamics could also play a role. Analysts note that the EU might leverage increased LNG imports from the US to negotiate favourable terms on future trade tariffs.