Tactical agreement proving elusive for Central Asian states grappling with water deficit

Central Asian states increasingly acknowledge a need to change the way they manage their rapidly dwindling water resources. But while all involved acknowledge that the current management framework is inadequate, Central Asian leaders are having trouble finding consensus on what needs to be done to match existing resources with economic development ambitions.

Over the past year, Central Asian states have rolled out water-intensive economic development blueprints, outlining plans for the construction of nuclear power plants, data centres, IT hubs and expanded mining and mineral processing operations. Such projects, along with explosive regional population growth, are expected to significantly heighten demand for water at a time when Central Asia is already confronting a growing water deficit.

Strategically, there is a growing realisation among Central Asian officials that closer cooperation offers the best chance of solving the region’s water conundrum. Yet, regional states remain far apart on tactics to overcome the deficit.

Kazakh officials presented a reform plan during a February 23 session of the Interstate Commission of Water Coordination (ICWC), a regional entity established to regulate water usage. Tacitly acknowledging that the commission and other existing water-management mechanisms have proven ineffective in addressing pressing challenges, the Kazakh plan calls for the creation of a new entity under a Central Asian Framework Convention on Water Management. It would be empowered with the means to enforce its decisions: existing entities lack such enforcement authority.

“I urge the parties to support this initiative, given its importance for strengthening regional coordination in the water sector, consolidating efforts to adapt to climate change, and promoting sustainable water resources management,” Kazakh Minister of Water Resources Nurzhan Nurzhigitov told the participants at the ICWC meeting, held in the Tajik capital, Dushanbe.

Other states did not immediately respond to the Kazakh proposal. 

Underscoring the tactical paralysis of the ICWC, participants discussed the dangerously low water levels in major regional reservoirs and major rivers at present, but could not come up with a unified response aimed at easing looming shortages for irrigation during the summer growing season. 

When it comes to finding tactical agreement, a key stumbling block is the competing interests of upstream and downstream nations. The upstream states, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, hold most of the region’s water resources, while the downstream states of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan consume the bulk of water for agricultural purposes. 

Water use is tied closely to electricity generation. Upstream states rely heavily on hydropower during the winter to generate heating and electricity. During the post-Soviet era, downstream states have occasionally supplied electricity to their upstream neighbours to help ensure adequate water supplies for the summer growing season. The existing low water levels, however, are exposing the inadequacy of ad hoc swap arrangements. 

Kazakhstan is not alone in calling for reform. A commentary published by Kyrgyzstan’s official Kabar news agency on February 9 echoed the need for substantive change, noting that of Central Asia’s collective population, around half (roughly 37 million people) “live in areas of acute water deficit.” It added that the water deficit threatens to throttle economic growth.

While Kyrgyzstan may share Kazakhstan’s desire to overhaul the existing water-management framework, the commentary highlighted the difficulty of bridging the existing divide between upstream and downstream states. From the Kyrgyz perspective, the interests of upstream states have been shortchanged since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and it is time to address this injustice. It is worth noting that Kyrgyzstan has withdrawn as a full member of the ICWC and now participates as an observer.

“It is very important that the activities of regional organizations on the issue of water use in Central Asia meet the interests of all countries, both downstream and upstream,” the commentary states. “If this principle is not observed, then it is necessary to reform the work of such organizations … revising the regional legal framework, the provisions of which are outdated, have lost relevance or do not meet modern realities.”

Downstream states shoulder most of the responsibility for improving water-resource management, specifically by introducing water-saving technologies to reduce water demand for irrigation, the Kyrgyz commentary insists. It also calls on downstream states to minimise the cultivation of “moisture-loving crops,” including cotton.

In a potential move sure to draw the ire of downstream states long-accustomed to the communist-era legacy of free access to water, some Kyrgyz MPs have started calling for Kyrgyzstan to start charging its neighbours for the water they use. “The US pays Canada for water, and Germany pays Sweden. Why doesn’t Kyrgyzstan receive payment for its water? That’s international law!” MP Umbetaly Kydyraliev stated during a February 9 parliamentary committee meeting, referring to hydropower payments.

This article first appeared on Eurasianet here.