Tajikistan hedging its Rogun bet, exploring solar options

A trend in Central Asia seems to be gaining momentum in which the appetite for building large energy infrastructure is waning in Favor of developing smaller-scale projects that are faster and more cost-efficient to complete.

Kazakhstan, which intends to build three large-scale nuclear plants, was the first state to embrace the trend with an announcement in late 2025 that the country would explore the feasibility of deploying small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) as a way of meeting fast-growing power needs. Uzbekistan likewise has expressed interest in moving away from reliance on large-scale hydroelectric power stations in favor of micro hydroelectric generators as a means of offsetting a growing regional water deficit.

Tajikistan – home of the biggest of the large-scale infrastructure projects in the region, the Rogun Dam – is the latest Central Asian state appearing to embrace the go-smaller movement.

Over the past couple of days, the Tajik government has announced several initiatives to develop solar-power capacity. On January 13, officials sealed a $250mn deal to build two solar farms with a combined annual generating capacity of 500 megawatts. By comparison, Rogun, if built to its current specifications, would be the largest dam in the world, with a projected annual generating capacity of 3,600 MW and a total price tag of more than $9bn.

“The [solar] project symbolizes a serious step for Tajikistan towards ‘green’ energy, a sustainable economy, and an environmentally friendly future, and also forms a solid foundation for achieving the country's energy independence,” says the Tajik government’s statement on the deal.

The solar farms are projected to become operational within about a year, according to the statement. Rogun is tentatively slated for completion in about a decade, provided there are no construction delays due to financing problems or other factors.

In addition, Tajikistan’s Ministry of Energy and Water Resources has revealed it is in negotiations with the Saudi-based company ACWA Power and Abu Dhabi-based Masdar to build solar farms with a total generating capacity of 1,650 MW. Both companies are already developing numerous renewable energy projects across Central Asia and Azerbaijan and have signalled interest in expansion in the region.

The embrace of solar power signals a major potential shift in the Tajik government’s energy policy. Government officials have long dismissed environmentalist assertions that Rogun represents an environmental threat to the region and is a white elephant in the making, instead championing the dam as a guarantor of the country’s energy independence. 

The advent of solar projects in Tajikistan may represent a tacit government admission that Rogun’s critics were right. It may also be an inferred acknowledgement that Dushanbe cannot satisfy international lenders’ concerns that Rogun, once fully operational, can be sufficiently profitable to pay back billions in loans.

This article first appeared on Eurasianet here.