The hurricane season in 2024 was weird

The Atlantic hurricane season of 2024 was a weird one. It both produced more, and more destructive, hurricanes than usual, but at the same time it had a calm hole in the middle where there should have been at least four hurricanes, but they didn’t appear, say scientists. But despite these quirks, the summer’s hurricane season, which officially comes to an end this week, is going to get worse in the coming years.

The 2024 hurricane season ultimately produced a total of 11 hurricanes – well above the average of seven – including five major hurricanes, surpassing the expected three. The financial toll was equally significant, with economic damages estimated at $500bn, according to AccuWeather Bloomberg reports.

But in the middle of the season, where climatologists said there could be as many as 25 hurricanes, for the first time in over 50 years it went silent during its most active phase, mid-August to early September.

Typically, this period sees four named storms, at least two of which intensify into hurricanes. Historical heavyweights such as Hurricanes Andrew, Katrina and Ida all formed in this window. This year, however, the silence ended with Hurricane Francine’s landfall in Louisiana, triggering a chain of violent storms. Hurricane Helene became a Category 4 storm, devastating Appalachia and the Southeast, claiming at least 214 lives. Days later, Hurricane Milton briefly reached historic intensity, fuelled by record ocean temperatures of nearly 32°C, before targeting Florida's Tampa Bay region.

Scientists point to the unprecedented warmth of Atlantic waters – averaging 1°C to 1.5°C above normal – as a key driver of the season’s extremes. Hot seas supercharged storms with additional energy.

Michael Bell, a climatologist, commented: "If the Atlantic holds onto its warmth over the winter, it could mean the potential for another really busy season next year," Bloomberg reports.

Hurricanes require a minimum sea surface temperature of 26°C to form, and the Atlantic reached a whopping 32°C this year. While El Niño traditionally dampens hurricane activity by creating wind patterns that break up storms before they can form, its sister, La Niña, does the opposite. A weak La Niña, expected to emerge in early 2025, could exacerbate the already dire outlook for next season.

The season's dichotomy of calm and chaos highlights the increasing unpredictability of extreme weather thanks to the Climate Crisis that is now producing an annual disaster season.

Analysts warn that such variability could become the new norm, with significant implications for coastal infrastructure, insurance markets, and emergency preparedness. The dual threats of warmer oceans and the potential persistence of La Niña conditions suggest that the 2025 hurricane season will be worse than that of 2024, already one of the worst on record.