The world add 670GW of new renewable capacity in 2024, almost on track to triple green power generation

The world will add a huge 670 GW of new renewable capacity in 2024, bring government a step closer to the COP28 goal of tripling renewable generation capacity, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a report.

Between now and 2030, the world will add a total of 5,500 GW, outperforming governments' own national targets. This is equal to the current total power capacity of China, EU, India and US combined.

The acceleration is being driven by a combination of determined government policy amongst some leaders including China and Indian, as well as plunging costs associated with renewables, making both attractive and affordable sources of power, with solar power leading the way.

The build-out of solar PV and batteries is booming. In 2023, new solar installations surged by 80% to reach 400 gigawatts (GW) and the costs in many regions became cheaper than coal. As battery prices also fell, it is making 24-hour solar and storage power more accessible. Battery prices fell by 14% last year and are expected to continue to drop, meaning that electric vehicles will become cheaper too, Reuters reports. 

“Renewables are outpacing national governments' own targets Nearly 70 countries, accounting for 80% of the global renewables market, are set to surpass their national renewable ambitions for 2030 This growth is moving the world closer to reaching the COP28 tripling capacity goal,” says the report. 

Global CO₂ emissions from the energy sector are expected to peak this year, driven by the falling costs of solar power and batteries, which are reducing reliance on coal and oil, according to a report released on October 8 by consultancy DNV, Reuters reports. 

Last year, global CO₂   emissions reached a record high, pushing the target of limiting global warming to 1.5C further out of reach, experts and climate scientists have warned.

Although emissions may peak in 2023, DNV cautioned that their cumulative impact and a gradual decline after the peak make a global temperature rise of 2.2°C the most likely outcome this century.

The Renewables 2024 report says the world is expected to add over 5,500 gigawatts (GW) of new renewable capacity between 2024 and 2030, almost triple the increase seen between 2017 and 2023. China is set to account for nearly 60% of this new capacity, making it home to almost half of the world’s total renewable power capacity by 2030. While China leads in volume, India is growing at the fastest rate among major economies.

Solar PV is forecast to drive 80% of the global renewable capacity growth by 2030, spurred by the development of large solar plants and an increase in rooftop installations by businesses and households. The wind sector is also set for a recovery, with its expansion rate doubling between 2024 and 2030 compared with the previous six years. Currently, wind and solar are the cheapest options for new electricity generation in almost every country, says the IEA.

Nearly 70 countries, representing 80% of global renewable capacity, are on course to reach or surpass their 2030 renewable energy targets. However, while the IEA forecasts global capacity to reach 2.7 times its 2022 level by 2030, the world is still shy of the full tripling target set at COP28. The IEA suggests governments could achieve this goal by outlining bolder plans in the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement and by improving access to finance, particularly in high-potential regions such as Africa and Southeast Asia.

“Renewables are outpacing national targets, driven not only by climate and energy security concerns but also by their cost competitiveness,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. “This report shows that renewables, especially solar, will transform global electricity systems by 2030, with additions matching the combined current power capacity of China, the EU, India, and the US.”

By 2030, renewables are set to meet almost half of global electricity demand, with wind and solar contributing 30%. However, the report stresses the importance of integrating variable renewable sources like wind and solar into power systems, as rising curtailment rates – where excess renewable generation is wasted – are becoming a concern. In some countries, curtailment already exceeds 10%.

The IEA recommends measures to enhance grid flexibility and streamline permitting processes. The agency highlights the need to modernise 25mn kilometres of electricity grids and build 1,500 GW of storage capacity by 2030 to accommodate greater shares of renewables.

The share of renewables in global energy consumption is projected to rise to 20% by 2030, up from 13% in 2023. “Solar is powering renewables growth around the world. Solar PV alone is set to account for a massive 80% of new renewable capacity added globally between now & 2030 This means new large power plants – but also rooftop installations of solar panels by companies and households,” says Birol.

Many countries are seeing strong momentum behind renewables. But China is set to account for almost 60% of all capacity installed worldwide between now and 2030. While China is adding the largest volumes of renewables, India is growing at the fastest rate among major economies.  

However, the report notes that renewable fuels such as biofuels, biogases, and hydrogen are lagging behind due to their higher costs compared with fossil fuels. These fuels are set to make up less than 6% of global energy use by 2030 unless stronger policy support is provided.

Global solar manufacturing is expected to surpass 1,100 GW by 2024, more than double projected demand. This oversupply, particularly from China, has driven module prices down by more than half since early 2023 but is causing significant financial losses for manufacturers. The IEA forecasts that solar PV manufacturing capacity will triple in both India and the US by 2030, though producing panels remains far more expensive in these countries than in China.