Turkey sets out $500bn energy plan to 2040 days before COP31, keeps coal in mix

Turkey needs $500bn to cut emissions by 40% and more than quadruple wind and solar by 2040, Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said on November 5, days before it hosts global climate summit COP31.

The National Energy 2040 plan, presented at the presidential office in Istanbul, aims to take electrification of the economy to 36%, installed power capacity from 123 GW to 281 GW and the renewable share of that capacity from 63% to 77%, according to the ministry. Wind and solar would reach 175 GW, and the fleet of electric and hybrid vehicles would grow to 20mn out of 41mn, from about 500,000 electric cars now. The nuclear build-out would reach 10 GW and 11% of electricity, with the country's first nuclear power station, Rosatom-built Akkuyu, due to feed the grid from 2027. The goal, in the ministry's words, is a Turkey independent in energy.

The money is the first test of the plan. Bayraktar put $210bn on five state companies – TEIAS, EUAS, Eti Maden, TPAO and BOTAS – which are to be restructured and partly listed with the state keeping a majority. That leaves about $290bn, much of it expected from foreign investors, AP reported. Over 13 years that comes to some $22bn a year, against $13bn of foreign direct investment into all sectors of the Turkish economy in 2025 and $4.2bn in 1H26, on IMF balance of payments data. The market, meanwhile, is under a cloud: MSCI froze changes to its Turkey indexes in October over the country's ongoing stock market funds scandal.

"If the world is serious about carbon neutrality and if we would like to fund [fighting] climate change and global warming, we need to find the money," Bayraktar said. "Everyone needs to take some responsibility and provide money for that."

The second test is coal, which remained Turkey's largest source of power last year at 33% of generation, against nearly 23% for solar and wind, according to the ministry. The figures made Turkey Europe's largest coal power generator, according to think tank Ember.

"We are looking for a just transition from coal to relatively cleaner sources of energy... but we need coal for security of supply," Bayraktar said, adding that mining and power stations employ at least 30,000-40,000 people. The ministry's written account of the launch does not mention coal, and no exit date was reported.

Gas and oil stay in too. "Oil and natural gas will continue to be part of our lives," Bayraktar said. The ministry wants Turkish production at home and abroad to cover all of a projected 57bn cubic metres (bcm) of gas demand and 718,000 barrels a day of oil demand in 2040, against about 15% of needs now in each. Black Sea gas production is due to double to 7.5 bcm a year in the coming years, AP reported, which would be about 13% of that target.

Turkey has pledged net zero by 2053, and Ankara had promised stronger targets in the run-up to the summit in Antalya. Neither the ministry nor AP gave a baseline for the 40% emissions cut, so it cannot yet be set against the Climate Action Tracker, which rates Turkey's climate targets and policies as "critically insufficient". Bayraktar said his message at COP31 would be for countries to adopt "responsive and realistic policies".