UN says Earth on track to heat to a dangerous 3.1°C

Global heating may rise to 3.1°C by the end of the century if policy stays on the same track, says a new annual UN Emissions Gap report. That is an eye-popping 5.6°F.

The Paris Agreement of 2015 called for warming not to exceed 1.5°C, or 2.7°F, above pre-industrial levels.

"We're teetering on a planetary tight rope," said UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres. "Either leaders bridge the emissions gap, or we plunge headlong into climate disaster."

Already, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions rose globally by 1.3% between 2022 and 2023, to a new high of 57.1 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent, said the report.

"If we look at the progress towards 2030 targets, especially of the G20 member states ... They have not made a lot of progress towards their current climate targets for 2030," said Anne Olhoff, the report’s chief scientific editor.

The world has so far warmed by about 1.3°C (or 2.3°F).

In short, countries must start curbing emissions immediately, according to the UN Emissions Gap Report 2024.

“Climate crunch time is here,” said UN Environment Programme executive director Inger Andersen. “We need global mobilisation on a scale and pace never seen before, starting right now before the next round of climate pledges (in 2025).”

The report finds, however, that there has been progress since the Paris Agreement.

GHG emissions in 2030, based on policies in place, were projected to increase by 16% at the time of the agreement’s adoption. Today, the projected increase is just 3%. Even so, 2030 GHG emissions still must fall by 28% for the Paris Agreement 2°C pathway and 42% for the 1.5°C pathway.

Fully implementing unconditional Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – emissions goals agreed to by individual countries under the Paris Agreement – would put the world on track for limiting temperature rise to 2.9°C above pre-industrial levels this century. Fully implementing conditional NDCs would lower this to 2.5°C.

The report calls for all nations to accelerate economy-wide, low-carbon development transformations. Countries with greater capacity and responsibility for emissions will need to take more ambitious action and support developing nations as they pursue low-emissions development growth.

The report looks at how stronger implementation can increase the chances of the next round of NDCs, due in 2025, bringing down GHG emissions in 2035 to levels consistent with 2°C and 1.5°C pathways. It also looks at the potential and risks of CO2 removal methods – such as nature-based solutions and direct air carbon capture and storage.

World climate leaders and lobbyists will meet later in November in Baku, Azerbaijan at the annual United Nations Climate Change Conference COP29 summit.

Negotiations at COP29 will help to guide each country’s updated NDCs, due in February. Andersen said that wealthy countries must double down on their goals.

The world’s top 20 economies were responsible for almost 80% of world emissions last year, whereas the lowest 47 countries were responsible for just 3%.

The UN report says nations must together commit to and implement a cut of 42% on yearly GHG emissions by 2030, and reach 57% by 2035 for any hope of preventing heating beyond the unlikely Paris target of 1.5°C (2.7°F).