White House weighs technocratic council as Venezuela fallback plan

The White House is quietly developing contingency plans for Venezuela that prioritise preventing state collapse over democratic outcomes, exploring the possible installation of a technocratic emergency council should the interim government led by Delcy Rodríguez falter, Spanish outlet ABC reported.

US officials are conducting low-profile discussions centred on averting a power vacuum that could ignite violence, paralyse institutions and disrupt control over critical infrastructure including ports, airports and energy facilities whilst triggering a new wave of migration towards American borders.

The exploratory talks reflect Washington's concern that sudden regime fracture or factional conflict within the shaky triumvirate governing post-Maduro Venezuela could undermine the stability President Donald Trump considers essential for securing US access to the country's vast oil reserves.

One contingency under examination involves establishing a short-lived technocratic body with expertise in macroeconomics, energy, healthcare and infrastructure, a model inspired by administrative arrangements Trump has floated for Gaza. Officials describe the concept as an "institutional safety net" designed to maintain state functions rather than deliver a democratic transition.

Significantly, Nobel Prize laureate opposition leader María Corina Machado, whose coalition won more than two-thirds of votes in the widely disputed 2024 elections, would be deliberately sidelined from such emergency governance frameworks. The exclusion aims to spare her political costs associated with austerity measures or harsh security decisions deemed necessary for stabilisation, allowing Washington to preserve her as a potential future democratic figurehead whilst managing Venezuela through authoritarian administrators willing to accommodate US demands.

Trump has so far committed to working with Rodríguez, who served as Nicolás Maduro's vice president throughout his authoritarian rule before assuming interim leadership following the January 3 US military operation that extracted the deposed leader to face narco-terrorism charges in New York.

The president has praised Rodríguez as a "fantastic person" with whom he is working "very well," pointing to tangible results including prisoner releases, cooperation on oil sales and agreement to ship millions of barrels of Venezuelan crude to the United States. Secretary of State Marco Rubio outlined a three-phase strategy beginning with "stabilisation" through economic leverage, followed by "recovery" ensuring American companies gain market access, and concluding with political "transition."

However, the arrangement remains fundamentally precarious. Rodríguez governs alongside Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello, the brutal enforcer who commands intelligence services accused by the United Nations of crimes against humanity, and Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino López, who controls the armed forces. Russia's ambassador to Venezuela said last week that Maduro's capture was facilitated by internal betrayals, claiming the security apparatus had been penetrated by American intelligence and that Venezuelan forces received no orders to defend against the US assault.

Reports cited by ABC indicate earlier contacts involving Rodríguez with US intelligence, Russian officials and intermediaries in Qatar, alongside messages hinting at cooperation once Maduro was removed, though stopping short of direct participation in his capture. Such communications suggest the interim president calculated that cosying up to Washington offered better prospects for preserving power than resisting American intervention.

Yet US officials remain wary of over-reliance on any single figure. Their approach operates on parallel tracks: maintaining working ties with Rodríguez to manage immediate issues whilst examining fallback options should that bridge collapse. To that end, the White House is reportedly mapping the real balance of power in Caracas, including contacts linked to Cabello, with the overriding test being who can prevent internal rifts and maintain order.

Analysts believe the technocratic council concept may emerge as a blueprint for Trump's broader approach to governance in contested territories, which could potentially be applied to eastern Ukrainian territories occupied by Russia as part of the ongoing ceasefire negotiations with the Kremlin. Rather than imposing democratic institutions that lack indigenous support or capacity for enforcement, the model envisions appointing specialists focused narrowly on keeping essential services operational such as electricity, water, ports, oil extraction, whilst skirting the headache of elections or constitutional reform.

Beneath the US diplomatic manoeuvring lies a constrained set of pragmatic objectives: safeguarding border security, preserving conditions for Venezuela's oil sector to remain operable, and avoiding improvisation if the political structure fragments. Trump has repeatedly declared Washington will "run" Venezuela during the interim period, maintaining explicit threats of further military intervention alongside economic leverage through control of oil revenues.

The US administration has seized multiple Venezuelan tankers and completed sales of confiscated crude worth approximately $500mn whilst keeping purchasers confidential. Meanwhile, Rodríguez has advanced an overhaul of Venezuela's legislation currently restricting external participation in oil ventures, in order to meet US demands seeking to expand the private sector’s role in the country’s key industry.