World to miss goal of tripling renewables by 2030, says IEA

New analysis from the International Energy Agency (IEA) finds that countries will miss the COP28 goal of tripling global renewables capacity by 2030.

Official commitments in NDCs, or Nationally Determined Contributions, currently amount to 1,300 GW– just 12% of what is required to meet the global tripling objective set in Dubai.

This is according to the new report COP28 Tripling Renewable Capacity Pledge: Tracking countries’ ambitions and identifying policies to bridge the gap.

However, new country-by-country analysis by the IEA – covering nearly 150 countries worldwide – finds that governments’ domestic ambitions go much further, corresponding to almost 8,000 GW of installed renewable capacity by 2030.

This means that if countries were to include all their existing policies, plans and estimates in their new NDCs due next year – which will include revised ambitions for 2030 and new goals for 2035 – they would reflect 70% of what is needed by 2030 to reach the tripling goal, which corresponds to 11,000 GW of installed renewable capacity globally.

This indicates ample scope for countries to bring their NDCs in line with their current domestic ambitions – though the report emphasises that countries also need to accelerate implementation, said the IEA. At the same time, countries need to move their ambitions higher to align with the tripling goal.

“At COP28, nearly 200 countries pledged to triple the world’s renewable power capacity this decade, which is one of the critical actions to keep alive hopes of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. “This report makes clear that the tripling target is ambitious but achievable – though only if governments quickly turn promises into plans of action.”

He continued: “By delivering on the goals agreed at COP28 – including tripling renewables and doubling energy efficiency improvements by 2030 – countries worldwide have a major opportunity to accelerate progress towards a more secure, affordable and sustainable energy system. The IEA will continue to support governments around the world in efforts to achieve this.”