YPF posts best earnings in 10 years for 2025

YPF reported an adjusted EBITDA of $5bn for 2025, the highest in a decade, driven by record shale oil production in Vaca Muerta despite falling international crude prices. The Argentine national oil company's results came as a result of its aggressive unconventional development, which appeared to offset challenging market conditions.

The company's shale oil output reached a record 190,000 barrels per day (bpd) in October 2025, with Q3 averaging 170,000 bpd, a 43% y/y increase even after divesting its 49% stake in the Aguada del Chañar block. By December, production hit 204,000 bpd, exceeding year-end targets and demonstrating sustained momentum in Argentina's most critical energy asset.

YPF invested $4.477bn in 2025, with 72% directed toward unconventional projects. This capital deployment strategy reflects the company's deliberate pivot toward Vaca Muerta, where shale production now accounts for 70% of total oil output. The approach has proven economically effective: combining increased unconventional production with mature field decommissioning delivered a 44% reduction in unit extraction costs during Q4 2025 compared to the previous year.

The reserve position strengthened significantly, with Vaca Muerta's P1 shale reserves reaching 1.128bn barrels of oil equivalent. This is a 32% y/y increase representing 88% of the company's total reserves. The 3.2x reserve replacement rate indicates reserves are growing more than three times faster than extraction, providing a substantial long-term production runway.

Downstream operations contributed to the positive results, with fuel sales growing 3% and refineries achieving record processing levels in Q4, substantially improving margins. YPF also advanced operational efficiency through technological transformation, inaugurating seven Real Time Intelligent Centres across its operations.

Active portfolio management generated over $1bn through strategic divestitures, including subsidiary Profertil and the Manantiales Behr conventional field. The company simultaneously strengthened its unconventional position through a January 2026 asset swap with Pluspetrol, acquiring additional stakes in three strategic areas for the Argentina LNG project.

That LNG development represents YPF's most significant strategic initiative. In February 2026, YPF, ENI and XRG signed a binding Joint Development Agreement for an integrated LNG project with 12 MTPA capacity. CEO Horacio Marín confirmed planned 2026 investments of $5.5 to $5.8bn, with approximately 70% allocated to unconventional output.

YPF secured $3.7bn in financing during 2025, demonstrating capital market confidence in its Vaca Muerta-focused strategy. The company also entered ARCA's payment plan to settle income tax loss adjustment debts, impacting 2025 accounting results but generating minimal cash flow effects.

With production momentum sustained, financial capacity demonstrated, and the Argentina LNG project advancing, YPF appears positioned to maintain its unconventional growth trajectory whilst navigating ongoing commodity price volatility.

The company is expecting sustained financial growth in 2026, with a higher EBITDA of between $5.8bn and $6.2bn in 2026.