A Russian tanker is heading to Cuba. Will Trump let it through?

A tanker widely believed to be carrying Russian fuel is heading towards Cuba, potentially setting the stage for a fresh confrontation between Moscow and Washington as the island struggles under a de facto US fuel embargo that has crippled power generation, transport and basic services.

The situation bears distant echoes of the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, when Soviet vessels carrying nuclear warheads brought the two superpowers to the brink of war. The stakes this time are incomparably lower, but Cuba could once more find itself at the centre of a geopolitical standoff, this time over desperately needed oil rather than nuclear warheads. Fulton Armstrong, the former CIA lead Latin America analyst, told the New York Times: "Since the Cuban Missile Crisis, this is the biggest step. And the Cubans will have to make a decision on whether to surrender."

The tanker, identified by maritime tracking data as the Sea Horse and flagged in Hong Kong, is expected to arrive in Cuba in early March carrying nearly 200,000 barrels of fuel, most likely gasoil, according to shipping data and analysis by maritime intelligence firm Kpler cited by Bloomberg. The cargo is believed to be of Russian origin, though neither Moscow nor Havana has confirmed the shipment. Russia's embassy in Cuba has denied publishing any official communication about the vessel, dismissing circulating reports, including claims that the tanker was being escorted by a Russian destroyer, as false. What is not in dispute is the scale of US efforts to prevent any fuel from reaching the island.

While the Trump administration has stopped short of formally declaring a blockade, it is functioning as one, the NYT reported, citing a US official who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The architect of the policy is Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the first US-born Cuban to hold the post, who has made no secret of his ultimate ambition. "We would love to see the regime change," he told Congress last month.

According to people familiar with the matter cited by Axios, Rubio has been conducting backchannel discussions with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, grandson of former leader Raúl Castro, in what officials describe as an exploratory effort to identify a negotiated pathway to political transition, following a playbook Washington has already tested in Venezuela, where it cultivated relationships within the existing power structure ahead of Nicolas Maduro's removal.

President Donald Trump signed an executive order in late January declaring a national emergency over an "unusual and extraordinary threat" from Cuba, threatening tariffs on any country supplying oil to the communist-run island, already subject to a punishing trade embargo for over 60 years. The measures have succeeded in frightening off potential suppliers, with Mexico halting shipments despite President Claudia Sheinbaum's public misgivings.

A massive US naval deployment, the largest the Caribbean has seen in decades, has been enforcing Washington's oil embargo, building on the operational experience gained during the campaign against Venezuela that culminated in Maduro's capture in January. Caracas had long been Cuba's dominant oil supplier, accounting for roughly 58% of petroleum imports as recently as 2023, but its removal from the equation left the island scrambling for alternatives.

The deterrent effect has been tangible and swift. On January 19, a petrochemical tanker, the Mia Grace, departed Lomé, Togo, carrying what analysts believe was several hundred thousand barrels of diesel or fuel oil, reportedly purchased by Cuban state company Cubametales through a European intermediary. The African token of solidarity never arrived: midway through its Atlantic crossing, the vessel quietly altered its destination to the Dominican Republic. No shots were fired, no boarding took place: the mere prospect of US reprisals was enough.

According to a NYT analysis of shipping data, a separate vessel linked to Cuba subsequently made the five-day journey to Curaçao, consuming precious fuel reserves in the process, only to leave the port empty-handed. Shortly afterwards, the US Coast Guard stopped a Colombian fuel oil tanker that had approached to within 70 miles of Cuban waters, escorting it away from the island.

The case of the Ocean Mariner illustrates Washington's reach with particular clarity. According to the NYT, the vessel loaded around 84,500 barrels of fuel oil in Colombia in late January, transmitting its destination as the Dominican Republic before altering course towards Cuba on February 10. The following day, still some distance from the Cuban coast, it abruptly reversed course as a US Coast Guard vessel pulled alongside. The tanker was escorted into Dominican waters, where it sat full of fuel for several days before being directed north towards the Bahamas – the same destination used for Venezuelan tankers seized by US forces late last year.

Cuba's Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez has condemned the measures as illegal under international law, asserting Havana's right to import fuel from willing suppliers and describing US actions as naked political pressure. The United Nations has echoed those concerns, warning that failure to meet Cuba's energy needs risks triggering a humanitarian crisis.

The human cost, meanwhile, is already severe. Cuba generates more than four-fifths of its electricity from ageing Soviet-era oil-fired plants, and the supply shock has rippled through nearly every sector of life on the island. Blackouts lasting up to 20 hours a day have been reported across the country. Hospitals have postponed operations, water pumping stations have been disrupted, schools have cancelled classes and trash goes uncollected on Havana's streets as fuel-dependent municipal services grind to a halt. A shortage of jet fuel has forced major airlines to suspend routes and many tourist resorts to shut down, dealing a severe blow to an industry that provides a crucial source of hard currency for the cash-strapped island.

Rohit Rathod, a senior oil analyst at Vortexa, told Bloomberg he estimates the country's reserves could be depleted by late March, a timeline that could trigger social unrest severe enough to threaten the government. Cuba recorded zero oil imports in January, the first such month since 2015, and has received just one shipment so far in 2026, as per Kpler data.

For Russia, the Sea Horse's reported journey represents an opportunity to project influence close to US shores at a moment when Western sanctions have forced Moscow to seek alternative markets for its own fuel exports. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has described Cuba's fuel situation as critical, accusing Washington of pursuing "unilateral coercive measures" and reiterating Moscow's readiness to support its long-standing ally. Russia, already heavily sanctioned over its invasion of Ukraine, has little additional trade exposure to US reprisals, a point Peskov himself made plain: 'We don't want an escalation, but on the other hand,” he said. “Our trade with the United States is almost nonexistent.”

Yet the Kremlin's willingness to act carries its own complications. Russia has extensive experience operating a shadow fleet of tankers and alternative insurance arrangements, infrastructure developed over three years of circumventing sanctions on its own fuel exports, and could in theory sustain a modest supply line to Cuba if Washington turns a blind eye. The question is whether it will.

Should the Sea Horse be permitted to discharge its cargo without interference, it could open the door to further shipments, handing Moscow a propaganda coup and raising questions about the credibility of US sanctions enforcement. There are parallels to China's continued purchases from Russia's Arctic LNG-2 plant over the past six months, despite those trades violating US sanctions – a pattern that has demonstrably weakened the deterrent effect of Western economic pressure.

Should Washington move to intercept the vessel, however, it would risk further straining relations with Moscow at a delicate moment, with Ukraine peace talks now tentatively under way as the full-scale invasion nears its fourth anniversary. What happens to the Sea Horse will say much about how far both sides are prepared to go.