Beijing’s next five-year plan tests climate ambition

China’s forthcoming five-year plan, due to be published this week, will play a decisive role in determining how rapidly the world’s largest emitter can curb greenhouse gas emissions and how far it will extend support to clean technology industries – all deemed policy choices central to the global fight against climate change, Bloomberg reports.

Policymakers are gathering in Beijing from March 5 for the annual session of the National People's Congress, the country’s premier political meeting. Attendees will review progress towards environmental objectives and, more significantly, endorse economic and policy strategy through 2030 - the deadline set by President Xi Jinping for China to reach peak carbon emissions.

According to Bloomberg, the rapid deployment of renewable energy options around the country and the popularity of electric vehicles in recent years has already begun to restrain the growth of China’s climate footprint. One analysis cited by the news agency concluded that carbon dioxide emissions fell by 0.3% in 2025. Yet, even with the drop, there are mounting concerns that the new strategy may end up prioritising expansion in green manufacturing over the actual cutting of greenhouse gases.

Away from the immediate world of renewables and emissions, there is huge pressure on Beijing to bolster growth while at the same time generating employment to help China compete with the US. By pushing the expansion of green manufacturing, Xi would be checking multiple boxes at the same time, says Neil Thomas, a fellow on Chinese politics at the Asia Society’s Center for China Analysis.

In doing so, however, there may be a levelling-off in China’s ambition on emissions reductions.

Indicators already point in this direction as fresh data released on February 28 as the world was focussed on the Middle East indicated that China has already fallen short of a flagship climate goal set under its previous five-year plan: to reduce carbon emissions intensity per unit of GDP by 18% by the end of last year.

For now, officials in Beijing have signalled that the 15th five-year plan will still shift towards setting climate targets based not only on carbon intensity, but also on total volumes of pollution. The problem with this methodology is, as critics quite rightly argue, targets based not solely on carbon intensity can serve to mask the scale of absolute emissions.

However, as the release of the plan approaches, according to Bloomberg, analysts do not necessarily expect a definitive cap on emissions even if the plan could include language committing to a decline from a peak during the 2026–2030 period.

As China stands on renewables, clean energy industries including solar power, electric vehicles and batteries made up around 11% of China’s total GDP in 2025. Without that contribution, the country would have missed its 5% growth target, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.

As such, further policy support for manufacturers appears likely – and sensible if viewed from afar - alongside backing for other decarbonisation technologies. These are expected to include concepts such as energy storage, green hydrogen and the emerging nuclear fusion sector.

After all, back in 2021, President Xi said China would begin reducing coal consumption during the 15th five-year plan period – and that time is now. More recently though, perhaps recognising that China still cannot move away from coal use entirely, his language has shifted and he has recently referred instead to achieving a peak in coal use within the next five years, albeit missing any concrete mention of reductions thereafter – wording that Bloomberg reports is likely in the forthcoming plan.