COMMENT: US strike on Iran is all but inevitable with Trump backed into a corner

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt held a press conference on February 18 in which she indicated that a US strike on Iran is an increasing possibility. 

With the Iranians threatening to put a chokehold on crucial US oil imports while battering away at US President Donald Trump’s pride, it appears as if a US offensive against Iran is all but inevitable.

Leavitt explained that there are “many arguments one could make” to justify a United States military offensive against Iran, after which she warned the Islamic regime that it “would be wise to make a deal.”

This comes against the backdrop of the latest round of negotiations between the US and Iran, which took place in Geneva on February 17. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that the parties reached an understanding on several key principles, before warning that the presence of some understanding "does not mean we will reach an agreement soon."

Despite such diplomatic progress, the Iranian leadership continued to antagonise the Trump administration, with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei threatening the US military, stating that, “The strongest army in the world can sometimes be hit so hard that it can't get up.”

He then went on to threaten action against the US aircraft carriers in the region, with the world’s largest carrier, the USS Gerald Ford, on course to the Middle East. "They keep saying that we sent an aircraft carrier towards Iran. Well, an aircraft carrier is, of course, a dangerous tool, but more dangerous than the aircraft carrier is the weapon that can send the aircraft carrier to the bottom of the sea," Khamenei threatened in an apparent provocation against US President Donald Trump.

Beyond such verbal sentiment, the Iranian regime upped its animosity toward the US on a military front as well.

On the same day as the Geneva talks, Iran's Fars news agency reported that the Strait of Hormuz would be closed for safety reasons. While the IRGC moved into the area the previous day, it began conducting live fire drills in the Strait after the talks in Geneva commenced.

This is not just a military threat to the US but a trade issue as well. By shutting down parts of the Strait, the Iranians place a chokehold on oil shipments to the US that must pass through the area.

The US Energy Information Administration describes it as the "world's most important oil transit chokepoint" for good reason. Shipments that pass through the area to American shores include those of crucial oil suppliers, including Saudi Arabia, the third-biggest oil supplier to the US after Canada and Mexico, as well as Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE. Oil prices have already spiked since the IRGC decided to close down the crucial waterway.

Should the Iranian leadership continue down this path of antagonism toward the US, particularly with Trump’s personal pride on the line, then the question will no longer be if the US will attack Iran, but when.