Europe sees further climb in gas prices in February, amid record storage withdrawals

European gas prices rose by 5% in February, reaching an average of $542 per 1,000 cubic metres, driven by record-high storage withdrawals and reduced wind power generation.

Gas prices at European hubs have been on an upward trajectory since last autumn. The average price stood at approximately $416 per 1,000 cubic metres in September 2024, rising to $456 in October, $491 in November, $489 in December and $517 in January 2025 before reaching $542 in February.

A key factor behind the price increase was the high rate of gas withdrawals from underground storage facilities (UGS), which reached their highest level in seven years and the third-highest for any February on record, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) data.

This partly reflects the EU’s loss of Russian gas via Ukraine at the start of January, depriving the bloc of over 14bn cubic metres of annual supply. Russia has ramped up supply via the TurkStream pipeline in response, and Slovakia has begun receiving gas via this route through Hungary, but this will offset only a fraction of the loss of transited volumes via Ukraine. 

Low wind generation also drove prices higher and led to increased storage withdrawals last month. In February, the EU generated only 13% of its electricity from wind farms, down from 21% in January.

Total accumulated gas reserves in the EU dropped below 39% by the end of February. Withdrawals from European UGS facilities amounted to 17.7 bcm, nearly double the volume recorded in February 2024. At the same time, gas injections into storage stood at just 880mn cubic metres, 27% lower than a year earlier and the lowest February total since 2018.

By February 28, European gas storage levels had fallen to 38.54%, 11.57 percentage points below the five-year average. The volume of gas in storage – less than 43 bcm – was lower than at the end of previous heating seasons, including 2010-11, 2011-12, 2013-14, 2018-19, 2019-20 and 2022-23.

The heating season in Europe began on October 29, 2024 – ten days earlier than the previous year – and since then, EU states have withdrawn over 66.5 bcm from storage. Net withdrawals, factoring in injections, amounted to about 63 bcm. On the 123rd day since storage reached its peak, withdrawals were 27% higher than the five-year average for that date. The most critical years for EU gas storage were 2018 and 2022, when reserves fell to below 18% and 26% respectively, forcing the use of buffer gas, which is typically maintained to sustain storage pressure.

While cold weather in early February contributed to higher gas withdrawals, milder conditions toward the end of the month, along with the start of talks between Russia and the US, led to a reversal in the price trend. By the end of February, trading prices had fallen to $475 per 1,000 cubic metres, though still 18% higher than at the end of January.

LNG supplies to the European gas transmission system also increased, reaching a record high for February, as more cargoes were secured to replace lost Russian gas. LNG deliveries totalled 10.7 bcm, up 2.7% from January and 11% from the previous year. In the first two months of 2025, total LNG imports reached approximately 21.2 bcm, marking a 4% increase from the same period in 2024.

Gas withdrawals from storage have become the primary source of supply for Europe this year, accounting for 43.7% of total gas inflows as of February 27, according to the European Network of Gas Transmission System Operators (ENTSOG). LNG imports ranked second at 24.9%, while gas supplies from the North Sea – primarily from Norway – accounted for 16.7%.

By contrast, gas flows from Eastern sources, including Russian pipeline gas and Ukrainian transit volumes, made up just 4.5% of total supply. Gas from North Africa contributed 6.6%, while shipments from the UK stood at 1.5%.

Despite the high level of withdrawals, European storage remains above the critically low levels seen in past years, but concerns persist over supply security for the remainder of the heating season.