Global wind to more than double by 2030, but more is needed, says Ember

A doubling of wind capacity is already planned by global governments, but more is needed.

National wind targets aim for a collective doubling of capacity by 2030, and global forecasts suggest this is achievable, says a new report by climate change think-tank Ember. But a tripling of renewables is the single largest action to cut emissions this decade and keep the 1.5C Paris Agreement climate goal within reach.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) and International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) both show that a global tripling of renewables to at least 11,000 GW by 2030 is the best way to meet the 1.5C goal.

And indeed at the UN’s COP28 climate change conference in Dubai in December, as many as 118 world leaders reached a historic agreement to triple global renewables capacity by 2030, and to reduce the share of fossil fuels by 2050 at the latest.

More than 90% of the renewable capacity growth is expected to be from solar and wind, with wind capacity tripling from 901 GW in 2022 to 2,742 GW in 2030.

This would mean wind generates almost one-fifth (19%) of global electricity supply by 2030.

The Ember report analysed national wind targets to see how current plans align with a tripling of wind capacity by 2030. It found that national targets already exceed a doubling of wind capacity, but they fall significantly short of a tripling.

The sum of 2030 national wind targets from 70 countries and one region is 2,157 GW. This is a 2.4x increase from the 901 GW planned in 2022, leaving a gap of 585 GW – or almost 25% – to achieve a global tripling of wind (2,742 GW).

Forecasts – not national goals – suggest that the sum of global wind targets is achievable only because of China’s outsized role. The IEA, consultancy BNEF, and the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) trade group all have forecast that global wind capacity in 2030 will reach around 2,100 GW, a value similar to the sum of national targets.

This is primarily achievable due to large wind additions forecast in China. Although it only accounts for 37% of global wind targets, China is forecast to install over 50% of global wind additions between 2024 and 2030.

China, the world’s biggest source of climate pollution, is overachieving on its target and is forecast to almost triple wind capacity from 2022 to 2030.

Ember said that other countries must increase their ambitions. Of the 70 countries with wind targets (including what Ember called more subjective ‘implicit’ targets), almost two-thirds are projected to fall short of their national 2030 targets based on the IEA’s main forecast, which was updated in January 2024.

Furthermore, these countries are collectively aiming well-below the tripling of wind capacity that is needed, warned Ember.

Wind has a critical role to play in the clean energy transition. It provides almost as much generation as solar in 2030 in the IEA Net Zero Roadmap despite having less than half the capacity. The IEA has already shifted expectations of more growth from wind to solar in its net zero roadmap update. That means solar already has an ambitious target, and is unlikely to be in a position to make up for a shortfall in wind generation, said Ember.

“This latest report from Ember shows commendable growth of wind energy around the world,” said Ben Backwell, CEO of GWEC. “Unfortunately, we are facing a climate emergency, and the world needs transformational action that delivers on the tripling promise set out at COP28. Action must be taken on permitting, finance, and supply chains – areas where action will deliver multiple benefits that close the gap between action and delivery. There is no time for empty promises, this is the time for action.”

GWEC peer-reviewed the report.

Katye Altieri, global electricity analyst at Ember and a co-author of the report, added: “Governments are lacking ambition on wind, and especially onshore wind. Amidst the hype of solar, wind is not getting enough attention, even though it provides cheap electricity and complements solar. The path to a cleaner energy future could be shaped by prioritising improved policies, regulatory frameworks and financial support.”