Goldman Sachs sees fuel price hike in Egypt by October 2026

US investment bank Goldman Sachs expected a new increase in fuel prices in Egypt by October 2026, driven by higher global oil costs as inflationary pressures mount across the economy, according to a report by the bank, cited by Sada Al Balad on April 7. 

Goldman Sachs revised its outlook for both interest rates and inflation, citing intensifying pressures from energy prices and ongoing supply chain disruptions linked to the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

The bank expects the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) to tighten monetary policy, forecasting a cumulative 200 basis- point-rise in interest rate in 2026. This would likely be split into two hikes of 100 basis points each in Q2 and Q3, with the possibility of an earlier move starting in May.

Goldman Sachs now anticipates interest rates reaching 21% by the end of the year, up from a previous estimate of 18%, as inflation risks accelerate.

Inflation is projected to peak at 17.6% year-on-year (y/y) in August 2026, driven by rising fuel costs, as well as increased transportation and food prices. The bank expects inflation to ease slightly to 16.8% by year-end, though still significantly above earlier forecasts of 13.4%.

The report also noted recent domestic pressures, including fuel price hikes in March, transport fare increases of up to 25%, and rising fertiliser costs, all contributing to higher food prices. Looking ahead, inflation is expected to fall below 10% in H2 2027.