Mexico struggling to negotiate US threats to suppliers of oil to Cuba

The Central American country has halted oil shipments to Cuba.

WHAT: The US is threatening Mexico with tariffs if it resumes oil shipments to Cuba.

WHY: Mexico had become Cuba’s largest supplier since Venezuela supplies were ended.

WHAT NEXT: Havana is seeking a diplomatic resolution with Trump officials.

Cuba’s worsening energy collapse has deepened after Mexico suspended oil shipments to the island under mounting pressure from the US, exposing both Havana’s acute dependence on imported fuel and the limits of Mexico’s diplomatic room for manoeuvre as Washington tightens sanctions.

The decision by Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum’s government to halt petroleum deliveries comes in response to a January executive order signed by US President Donald Trump declaring a “national emergency” with respect to Cuba. The order authorises sanctions and secondary tariffs on any country supplying oil to the island.

Trump has accused Cuba of harbouring Russian spies and “hosting” enemies including Iran and Hamas, and warned that countries selling petroleum to Havana could face elevated tariffs.

The threat appeared directed primarily at Mexico, one of the few remaining suppliers of crude to Cuba after Venezuela’s shipments to the island dwindled and then collapsed.

According to Bloomberg, Mexico had become Cuba’s principal oil supplier in recent months, together with Venezuela covering close to 80% of the island’s imported crude needs last year, based on data from Kpler.

Jorge Piñón, a petroleum expert at the University of Texas who closely follows shipments, said Mexico was sending around 22,000 barrels per day (bpd) to Cuba at its peak, though that figure fell to about 7,000 by the end of 2025. The last delivery arrived in early January 2026, days after Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was captured by US forces, according to two sources contacted by AFP, who said a vessel carrying 85,000 barrels docked in Havana on January 9.

Since then, Mexico has not sent oil to Cuba.

Mexico’s suspension confirmed

Sheinbaum has publicly acknowledged the suspension. “The problem we have now is that the United States said it will impose tariffs on any country that sells to Cuba, so we are seeking all diplomatic avenues to resolve this problem, because we don't want to harm Mexico either,” she stated during her regular media briefing at the National Palace on February 4. Days later, she added: “No one can be oblivious to the situation that the people of Cuba are experiencing right now due to the sanctions being imposed by the United States in a very unjust manner on any country that sends oil.”

While rejecting the legitimacy of the broadened US embargo, Sheinbaum has made clear that her government cannot ignore the economic risks. Mexico’s economy remains deeply intertwined with that of the US, its largest trading partner. Trump stated on February 3 that Mexico will “cease” sending crude to the island, underscoring the pressure facing Mexico City.

The scale of the commercial relationship between Mexico’s state-run oil company Pemex and Cuba highlights the sensitivity of the decision. Official data cited by El País show that Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex), through its subsidiary Gasolinas Bienestar, sold nearly $1.5bn worth of crude and petroleum products to Cuba between 2023 and 2025 at market prices and under contracts denominated in pesos. In 2025 alone, Pemex reported selling $496mn in crude and refined products to Cuba. Average exports in 2024 exceeded 20,000 bpd, equivalent to about 2.8% of Mexico’s total crude exports.

Pemex executives have stressed that the arrangement was commercial rather than concessional. Director Víctor Rodríguez Padilla said the volumes sent in 2025 represented “less than 1% of production” while refined products equalled 0.1% of sales. “It is very, very little... we do it for humanitarian reasons, as the president said very well, also for commercial reasons,” he said.

Rodríguez rejected suggestions that Havana had failed to pay. “Of course they pay us... They are very formal in their payments,” he said, adding that Pemex maintains an “open” contract with Cuba based on the island’s requirements and the company’s availability, while reducing exports overall to prioritise domestic refining demand.

Cuba in midst of oil shock

For Cuba, however, the suspension has had immediate and severe consequences. In January, the island recorded its first month with almost no oil imports in a decade, according to shipping data cited by Bloomberg. The communist-run country generates more than 80% of its electricity from oil, relying heavily on imported fuel to run ageing thermal power plants, many of Soviet design, alongside domestic crude.

Efforts to diversify the electricity matrix with Chinese-made solar plants have so far been insufficient to offset the loss of petroleum. As a result, shortages have rippled across the economy. Aviation fuel supplies have been exhausted, forcing authorities to warn international airlines that they cannot refuel on the island. Several major tourist resorts have shut down. In Havana, queues at petrol stations stretch for hours.

Cuban officials have previously acknowledged that national gasoline demand stands at roughly 8,200 bpd, a level that Mexican shipments had only just managed to cover for about a month at a time. With Venezuelan shipments curtailed and Mexican supplies halted, the gap has become acute.

The humanitarian impact has been stark. Hospitals have suspended surgeries, restricted patient transfers and reported critically low stocks of diesel, medicines and basic supplies. Public transport networks have effectively collapsed in several provinces, with long-distance bus and ferry services curtailed due to lack of fuel, according to Cuban state media. Food rationing has intensified, with staples reportedly sufficient for only a few weeks.

Cuba faces this severe economic crisis amid the long-standing US embargo and internal government failures. The situation risks worsening further if hydrocarbon shipments from both Venezuela and Mexico remain suspended.

Mexico, for its part, has sought to cushion the blow by expanding non-energy assistance. Two Mexican navy vessels — the Papaloapan and Isla Holbox — departed the port of Veracruz carrying 814 tonnes of humanitarian aid, primarily rice, beans, canned fish, powdered milk and hygiene supplies. Further consignments amounting to more than 1,500 tonnes remain pending.

What next?

Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel stated on February 6 that his government was open to conversations with the US. Trump, however, warned on social media that Cuba should reach an agreement “before it is too late.”

Mexico’s position is historically distinctive. It is the only Latin American country that has systematically opposed the US economic embargo on Cuba since it began over 60 years ago, although the tone of the relationship has varied under different administrations. Under the ruling Morena party, founded by Sheinbaum’s predecessor Andrés Manuel López Obrador, Mexico has cultivated closer ties with Havana.

Ricardo Pascoe, a former Mexican ambassador to Cuba under conservative President Vicente Fox, said Mexico has often proven a useful negotiator between the United States and Cuba since revolutionaries took power in 1959. “This has placed Mexico and the president of Mexico in a very complicated position,” Pascoe said. “Because then Mexico's economy continues to depend on the relationship with the United States, but it wants to have a privileged political relationship with a recognised adversary of the United States.”

That tension now defines Mexico’s approach. The suspension of oil exports may shield it from immediate economic retaliation, but it removes one of the last buffers cushioning Cuba from a rapidly deepening energy shock.