Morocco puts African Atlantic Gas Pipeline into UN financing pitch as Q4 FID target looms

Morocco has brought the roughly $25bn African Atlantic Gas Pipeline (AAGP) into a broader push for private and multilateral development capital as the project enters a financing phase without a publicly announced construction-finance package.

Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita, chairing the "Financing the Future" high-level meeting co-organised by Morocco and the UN Development Programme (UNDP) in New York on September 23, cited the AAGP among Morocco-backed initiatives intended to connect African economies and markets. He put Africa's infrastructure financing needs at $181bn-221bn a year for 2023-2030.

Bourita called on multilateral development banks to reduce risk, improve project bankability and mobilise long-term private capital, proposing regional guarantee and co-investment mechanisms. UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Deputy Secretary-General and Acting Secretary-General Pedro Manuel Moreno similarly argued that developing economies needed stronger project pipelines, de-risking and larger investment platforms to attract private capital.

No new financing commitment for the pipeline was announced at the meeting. Morocco is separately exploring possible support from the Export-Import Bank of the United States and the World Bank. Morocco's ambassador to Washington, Youssef Amrani, put the project cost at about $26bn in July, compared with the roughly $25bn estimate used in official project material. A US Exim spokesperson confirmed preliminary discussions, while the World Bank declined to comment.

The financing challenge extends beyond finding lenders. Anne-Sophie Corbeau, a global research scholar at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy, told Bloomberg in July that the number of countries involved would make the project difficult to execute, citing repeated operational and supply disruptions on the much shorter West African Gas Pipeline. She also questioned extending the line to Europe as the continent seeks to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels.

Morocco has pointed to prospective demand as an answer to that concern. Amina Benkhadra, director-general of Morocco's National Office of Hydrocarbons and Mines (ONHYM), said in May 2024 that the agency had secured one of Europe's largest gas aggregators to buy all gas exported through the Maghreb-Europe pipeline once the AAGP was connected.

The AAGP would run about 6,800-6,900 km through 13 countries from Nigeria along Africa's Atlantic coast to Morocco, where it would connect with the Maghreb-Europe pipeline and potentially supply European markets. Official project material gives slightly different route lengths. The system is designed to carry up to 30bn cubic metres of gas a year, including up to 15bn cubic metres for Morocco and Europe.

Documents from the environmental and social assessment of the Moroccan section point to a target of reaching a final investment decision (FID) in the fourth quarter of 2026. Bloomberg reported in July that construction was expected to begin in 2028, with first gas targeted for 2031 if financing is secured.

The FID timetable has slipped repeatedly: then-NNPC chief Mele Kyari said in 2022 that a decision would come in 2023, and in March 2024 that it was expected by December that year, before Benkhadra said two months later that it would come in early 2025.

The project is being developed in stages, and the first gas targeted for 2031 would not be Nigerian. Benkhadra told Reuters earlier this year that the initial segments would connect Morocco to gas fields in Mauritania and Senegal and link Ghana to Côte d'Ivoire, with a final segment connecting Ghana to Nigeria's gas fields. She said each segment was designed to be developed as a standalone system, allowing parts of the corridor to operate before the full route is completed.

ECOWAS heads of state signed an intergovernmental agreement in Freetown on July 19. ONHYM said the signing gave effect to approval granted at the 66th Ordinary Session of the ECOWAS Summit in Abuja in December 2024, following a 2022 memorandum of understanding between Nigeria, Morocco and ECOWAS. Morocco and Mauritania, which are outside ECOWAS, are due to sign the regional agreement separately.

Nigeria and Morocco are also targeting the fourth quarter of 2026 for a bilateral intergovernmental agreement expected to be signed by President Bola Tinubu and King Mohammed VI, according to Nigeria's Foreign Ministry.

The partners plan to establish a project company in Casablanca and a Pipeline Higher Authority in Abuja, followed by investor mobilisation and preparations for FID. ONHYM says the main engineering, environmental and technical studies have been completed or are substantially advanced.

The second phase of the front-end engineering and design programme had a total budget of $90.1mn. Its financing included contributions from Morocco and Nigeria, the Islamic Development Bank and a $14.3mn OPEC Fund loan supporting survey work on the northern section.

The Atlantic route is not Nigeria's only long-distance pipeline option. Nigeria, Niger and Algeria approved the final updated feasibility study for the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP) on June 3, and construction of the Algerian section was launched the following day.

The 4,128-km TSGP would connect Nigerian gas with Algeria's export infrastructure and is designed to carry up to 30bn cubic metres a year. Algeria's President Abdelmadjid Tebboune has said state-owned Sonatrach will take the lead on the Niger section, giving that route a named developer and financing backer for part of its build-out.

Morocco has also been adjusting the institutional framework around the project. Law No. 56.24, published in the Official Bulletin on June 15, provides for ONHYM to be converted into a joint-stock company initially wholly owned by the state, a reform intended to give the hydrocarbons and mining agency greater operating and investment flexibility.

Nigeria must also expand reliable gas supply before the southern end of the corridor can operate at scale. NNPC's Gas Master Plan 2026 targets national output of 10bn standard cubic feet per day (scfd) by 2027 and 12bn scfd by 2030, while expanding supplies to power generation, industry and export markets.

Feedgas shortages already constrain Nigeria's LNG industry. Nigeria LNG's six existing trains have a capacity of 22mn tonnes a year, while Train 7 is designed to lift that to about 30mn tonnes. NLNG Managing Director Adeleye Falade told reporters at the Gastech conference in Bangkok on September 15 that the company was targeting Train 7 start-up by the end of 2027. Reuters reported that utilisation at the existing trains was running at about 82-83%, with feedgas availability still a constraint. NLNG has remained under force majeure since 2022 and expects to lift the measure once utilisation reaches 90%.

Existing regional pipeline trade also illustrates commercial risk. Ghana owed about $75mn to N-Gas, the NNPC-controlled supplier, in early 2025. IntelliNews reported in May 2025 that Ghana had subsequently paid $65mn of the arrears between February and April, citing a source familiar with the matter.

The AAGP is also drawing scrutiny over environmental and community safeguards. Nigerian group Urban-Rural Environmental Defenders called on September 18 for a thorough environmental impact assessment and stronger protection for frontline communities affected by the project.

The immediate tests are whether Morocco and Mauritania sign the regional agreement, Nigeria and Morocco conclude their bilateral accord, the project company and Pipeline Higher Authority are established, and construction finance is secured. Even if the Q4 2026 FID target is met, the first planned sections would initially connect Morocco with Mauritanian and Senegalese gas rather than deliver Nigerian gas across the full corridor.