Two wars mean three-digit diesel prices new normal for Turkish motorists

It’s been years since gasoline station bosses across Turkey had anything to worry about when it comes to the adequacy of their roadside price displays.

Two decimal places after a two-digit figure was entirely sufficient. Displays comfortably handled the country’s fluctuating petrol and diesel prices. On September 17, however, the three-digit era made an abrupt arrival.

As diesel prices crossed the unprecedented Turkish lira (TRY) 100 ($2.04) per litre threshold, following a series of steep hikes, fuel station owners up and down Turkey were forced to seek emergency guidance from energy watchdog EPDK, Anka reported.

Faced with technical constraints that prevent three-digit numbers from displaying properly alongside double decimals, the regulator authorised stations to drop one decimal place to keep prices legible to motorists.

It’s a technical workaround, but it’s also an important visual symbol of a structural shift. The compounding market pressures of two major wars – the Russo-Ukrainian War and the Iran War, as well as associated conflicts in the Middle East – mean three-digit fuel prices are rapidly becoming the new normal in Turkey’s struggling economy.

Squeezed from two fronts

Turkey, which imports the vast majority of its energy needs, finds iself exceptionally exposed to the war-triggered shocks hitting global refined product markets. On one front, relentless Ukrainian drone strikes have severely degraded Russia’s refining capacity.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Russian refineries were successfully hit on average every three days during the first eight months of 2026. Major facilities such as Kirishi have been forced to shut down entirely, while others like Volgograd and NORSI are running at roughly 25% of capacity.

The resulting output crunch prompted Moscow to impose a sweeping ban on diesel exports in July.

For Ankara, the loss of Russian barrels amounted to a direct blow. Prior to the export ban, Turkey, alongside Brazil, was the primary buyer of Russian diesel, taking at least half of Moscow’s available sea-borne cargoes. Cut off from discounted Russian supplies, Turkish importers have been forced to compete on the open market for increasingly scarce alternatives.

The other war front, which has generated conflict across much of the Middle East, choked off traditional secondary supply routes. Data from shipping analytics firm Kpler show that Middle Eastern diesel exports halved between March and August to 800,000 barrels per day. Exporters have been crippled by maritime risks in the Red Sea and damage caused to regional processing infrastructure.

It is true to say that the supply problems are not the direct cause of the booming forecourt retail prices in Turkey as the prices are tied to Mediterranean crack margins. However, the two unending and expanding wars directly hit the benchmarks.

Global ripples

The squeeze on Turkey reflects a broader global crisis in middle distillates. Refineries worldwide are operating near maximum capacity. The US refiners ran at eight-year highs in late August. Yet diesel inventories across major hubs remain critically low.

In Europe’s ARA (Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp) storage hub, diesel stocks recently fell to their lowest seasonal levels in years while EU pump prices for diesel have surged 33% since late February to €2.11 per litre.

In the US, retail diesel prices crossed $6.00 a gallon for the first time on record this month, sparking concerns for the agricultural and freight sectors.

New baseline

In Turkey, where painful levels of inflation have already severely eroded household purchasing power, the jump in transport fuel prices threatens to unleash a fresh wave of secondary price spikes across food and logistics.

Though diesel prices briefly pulled back to around TRY 96 per litre on September 19 following a temporary price reduction of TRY 4.09, gasoline continues to be sold at above TRY 80. Brief market dips offer little structural relief given the vulnerability of global refining capacity.

With Russian supply offline, Middle Eastern routes constrained and global refining capacity stretched to the limits, Turkish drivers and businesses are learning to adjust to a stark reality. One hundred lira for a litre of fuel is no longer an anomaly, but the baseline of a war-torn energy landscape.

At Petrol Ofisi stations on the European side of Istanbul, the diesel price was up 77% y/y to TRY 96.3 per litre as of September 22 from TRY 54.4 on September 22, 2025, while the gasoline price was up 51% y/y to TRY 80.4 from TRY 53.07 a year ago.