India remains uncertain about LNG supply from Qatar

Petronet is sounding the alarm as QatarEnergy examines its force majeure status on a month-to-month basis.

What: India’s biggest gas importer Petronet remains in the dark on when QatarEnergy plans to resume LNG deliveries.

Why: Start-up plans for deliveries from Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial Complex remain cloudy as Strait of Hormuz remains closed by Iran.

What Next: India has significantly increased its base of LNG suppliers with the US taking over the top supplier role.

India’s largest gas buyer, Petronet, has expressed concern over the halt of LNG supply delivery from Qatar being continued as state-run QatarEnergy examines its force majeure status on a month-by-month basis, Reuters reported on August 13.

Petronet, a private joint venture, has yet to received a clear answer from QatarEnergy on supply of LNG for September. Petronet’s CEO A K Singh told reporters after announcing second quarter earnings that QatarEnergy remains non-committal about resumption of deliveries of LNG cargoes until the Strait of Hormuz is fully opened.

In late July, a Petrobangla official, told Reuters that QatarEnergy had extended force majeure on cargos to Bangladesh, India and South Korea until mid-September. However, with QatarEnergy continuing to lease out several of its LNG carriers through mid-October, worries have grown that force majeure on deliveries to some Asian partners could be extended until mid-autumn.

European partners have also been heavily affected by QatarEnergy’s force majeure declaration. Italy’s Edison has had force majeure extended on deliveries through the end of September.

A total of 24 cargoes scheduled for delivery to the Adriatic LNG terminal have now been affected since the beginning of April, equivalent to about 3 bn cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas, which is nearly half the annual volume covered by the companies’ long-term contract.

Qatar, which was the world's second-largest LNG exporter in 2025 trailing only the US, notified customers of force majeure on March 4 following Iranian drone and missiles strikes on the Ras Laffan Industrial Complex.

A second heavier attack later in March caused severe damage to two liquefaction trains knocking them out with repairs to Trains 4 and 6 expected to take three to five years to be completed and cost as much as $26 bn.

Saad al-Kaabi Qatar’s Minister of Energy and President and CEO of QatarEnergy estimates that the Gulf country will experience $20 bn in lost annual revenue from the two liquefaction units being off the market.

The damage to the liquefaction units has removed 12.8mn tonnes per year (tpy) of LNG from the global market and represents about 17% of QatarEnergy’s production capacity.

India, which has been attempting to ramp up LNG imports as part of its plan to conduct fuel switching and meet its climate targets, must now for new LNG suppliers.

New Delhi has set a goal of increasing the portion of natural gas in its energy mix to 15% by 2030, more than doubling its current level of 7%. It has also been expanding its LNG infrastructure and now boasts eight import terminals.

India has added several new suppliers, diversifying its partners for LNG imports to about 15 countries, according to local media First Post. Previously, New Delhi relied on six countries. India has also raised the number of crude oil suppliers from 27 countries to 41.

Among the suppliers India has shifted to in the wake of the loss of supply from Qatar are Oman, Nigeria, Angola, Australia, and the US, the latter of which has now become India’s top supplier.

India, which is the world’s fourth biggest importer of the super-cooled gas, bought 40% of its LNG supply from the US in May. The country’s fertiliser plants are heavily dependent on LNG to use as a feedstock while India also heavily relies on LNG to power the gas networks of its cities.

India previously relied on QatarEnergy to supply between 45-50% of its LNG with Qatar supplying about 11.2 mn tpy of LNG through long-term agreements. However, the top company to supply super-chilled fuel to India is now Shell, the world’s biggest trader of LNG.

In March, the London-headquartered supermajor secured purchase of 4 tn British thermal units of LNG out of the 6 tn bought by Indian fertiliser companies.

However, Shell too has been affected by Iran’s attack on the Ras Laffan Industrial Complex, with Shell declaring force majeure on LNG cargoes bought from QatarEnergy and sold to buyers. Shell is believed to purchase around 6.8 mn tpy of super-chilled fuel from QatarEnergy.

How long QatarEnergy’s status of force majeure remains in place is difficult to predict. Talks have been rocky between Washington and Tehran on opening the strait up to vessels. And on August 18, US President Donald Trump said no negotiations were taking place, while Iran accused the US of trying to squeeze it for concessions.

Previously 125 to 140 ships would pass through the strait daily. However, until the strait is opened up, global energy trade will continue to be disrupted. About one-fifth of LNG supply passes through the strait, which serves as a key chokepoint in LNG trade, with both Qatar and the United Arab Emirates dependent on the strait to ship cargoes.

Indeed, another geopolitical shock has completely transformed LNG trade and made yet another strong case for diversification of suppliers.