NorthAmOil: US elections could have impact on global LNG markets

The US election is in its final few days, and Vice-President Kamala Harris and ex-President Donand Trump have been in a razor-edge race. The vote, for the US president and much of Congress, is on November 5.

According to their stump speeches, Harris and Trump differ widely on energy. Harris is expected to continue current President Joe Biden’s policies, which have been accompanied by record oil production. Biden’s relationship with the oil and gas industry has, however, been fraught as he tried to balance consumer prices and environmental concerns.

But Harris focuses more on clean energy, while Trump’s mantra is “Drill, baby, drill!” He has also promised to roll back environmental regulations to ease drilling and mining of oil, gas, and coal.

They do differ on LNG. President Biden and his administration “temporarily paused” new LNG export permits in January, to study their impacts on the environment. The permits affected are those for trading countries and blocs that do not have a free trade agreement (FTA) with the US, which include the EU and China.

The US energy department has said the study will likely be completed in January. The impact of the pause is anticipated to hit in a year or two or more, since the freeze is of new permits.

In contrast, Trump has said he would quickly end the pause. But he has also said he will impose sizeable tariffs on all imports, such as a proposed 60% tariff on imports from China. This could obviously affect Chinese LNG imports, said Goldman Sachs in a new report.

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