Strikes on Iran gas fields could force Turkey to ramp up LNG imports

Damage to Iran’s Asaluyeh gas processing facility in Bushehr province and part of the South Pars complex, following an Israeli missile strike on March 18, risks disrupting pipeline supplies to Turkey, potentially forcing Ankara to increase its reliance on LNG imports.

Iran exports natural gas to Turkey via pipeline infrastructure linked to South Pars, the world’s largest gas field, with flows meeting roughly 15% of Turkish demand.

It remains unclear how extensive the damage to the facility is at the time of writing, but any sustained disruption could create an immediate supply gap.

“An unintended consequence of the strikes on Iran’s gas fields? Turkey may be forced to import more LNG,” Stephen Stapczynski, a Bloomberg reporter covering energy and commodities, said in a social media post, pointing to the knock-on effects of the escalating conflict on regional energy balances.

Turkey, which lacks significant domestic gas reserves, is heavily dependent on imports from a mix of suppliers including Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran. Pipeline gas from Iran has historically provided a relatively stable share of the mix, particularly during periods of peak demand.

If flows from Iran are curtailed, Ankara would need to turn to the global LNG market to compensate. Supplies on that market are constrained since Qatar shut down gas production due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Turkey has expanded its LNG infrastructure in recent years, including floating storage and regasification units, providing some flexibility to absorb supply shocks. It is greatly pushed up imports of LNG shipped from the US.