Global heating could exceed 3°C by end of century, say researchers

Methane emissions are rising faster than ever before, says new research led by Stanford University. The problem is so dire, global heating could exceed 3°C by end of century, a level at which there will be chaos at an unprecedented level.

Methane concentrations in the atmosphere at a record speed since 2019. At least two-thirds of yearly methane emissions now come from human activities, such as fossil fuel use, agriculture, and landfill and other waste.

More than 150 nations have pledged – in the Global Methane Pledge – to slash methane by 30% this decade, but the new research suggests that global methane emissions over the past five years have risen faster than ever. 

The trend “cannot continue if we are to maintain a habitable climate,” the researchers write in a September 10 article in Environmental Research Letters published alongside data in Earth System Science Data. Both papers are the work of the Global Carbon Project, an initiative chaired by Stanford University scientist Rob Jackson.

Methane it is 25 times more powerful by weight than carbon dioxide over a 100-year time frame, though it is short-lived. During the first two decades, methane heats the air nearly 90 times faster than carbon dioxide. The main component of natural gas is methane.

Air concentrations of methane are now more than 2.6 times higher than in the pre-industrial era – the highest they’ve been in 800,000 years or more, said the researchers.

Methane emissions continue to increase along the most extreme trajectory used in emission scenarios by the leading international climate scientists, according to Stanford University. 

The current path leads to global warming above 3 degrees Celsius – or 5 degrees Fahrenheit – by the end of this century.

“Right now, the goals of the Global Methane Pledge seem as distant as a desert oasis,” said Jackson, of the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability and lead author of the research. “We all hope they aren’t a mirage.” 

Joe Romm PhD, senior research fellow at the University of Pennsylvania's Centre for Science, Sustainability and the Media, posted the research on LinkedIn and said: “More evidence the world is tragically unserious about avoiding catastrophic warming.”